El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024EL NIO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 February 2024
ENSO Alert System Status: El Nio Advisory / La Nia Watch
Synopsis: A transition from El Nio to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Nia developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).
During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Nio index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Nio."
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (noaa.gov)
La Nina is characterized with drought, floods, and massive typhoons in the Western Pacific, affecting southern Africa and Australia.
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