NCU at >>> $4.75 copper >>> end of 2021 >>> If we get $4.75 copper and we get confirmation of steady state production of 5,000 tons per day from underground then what?
$4.75 mius $1.86 AISC (all-in sustaining cost) = $2.89 per pound cash-flow
$2.89 X 60 million pounds (underground) per year = $173.4 million per year
Apply an 8 X multiple and get $1.39 billion,
Divide $1.39 billion by say 2 billion shares and get $0.69 USD per share
Converted to CAD = $0.86 per share
Add the value of the future 70,000 tpd open pit asset to the $0.86 per share using $4.75 copper and get 220 million pounds per year at $2.75 ($4.75 minus $2.00 AISC) X an 8 multiple = $3.85 billion
Take $3.85 billion and remove $2 billion (a big over estimate) for the cost to build the open pit and get $1.85 billion. Divide this amount by 2.3 billion shares and get $0.92 USD per share which equals $1.14 CAD per share.
Take the open pit value of $1.14 (at $4.75 copper) and divide it by 2 because no one wants to pay for it's value and get about $0.57 CAD per share.
Add $0.86 per share plus the $0.57 per share = $1.43 per share.
So, if you were Pala and copper were to be $4.75 at the end of the year, you probably would not even want to talk to a buyer for less than $1.43 per share in that case.
Cheers,
Notgnu
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Will copper go to $5.50 by year end? NCU >>>
If we get $5.50 copper and we get confirmation of steady state production of 5,000 tons per day from underground then what?
$5.50 mius $1.86 AISC (all-in sustaining cost) = $3.64 per pound cash-flow
$3.64 X 60 million pounds (underground) per year = $218 million per year
Apply an 8 X multiple and get $1.74 billion,
Divide $1.74 billion by say 2 billion shares and get $0.87 USD per share
Converted to CAD = $1.08 per share
Add the value of the future 70,000 tpd open pit asset to the $1.08 per share using $5.50 copper and get 220 million pounds per year at $3.50 ($5.50 minus $2.00 AISC) X an 8 multiple = $6.16 billion
Take $6.16 billion and remove $2 billion (a big over estimate) for the cost to build the open pit and get $4.16 billion. Divide this amount by 2.3 billion shares and get $1.81 USD per share which equals $2.31 CAD per share.
Take the open pit value of $2.31 (at $5.50 copper) and divide it by 2 because no one wants to pay for it's value and get about $1.14 per share.
Add $1.08 per share plus the $1.14 per share = $2.22 per share.
So, if you were Pala and copper were to be $5.50 at the end of the year, you probably would not even want to talk to a buyer for less than $2.22 per share in that case
Cheers,
Notgnu