Looking ahead into 2021 (click here for the 2020 Year-in-Review in the Rare Earths market), first a quick review of 2020. Year-end 2020 market capitalization for the rare earths companies in the table below shows combined across all 26 companies listed, there was a total of almost CAD$17 billion of market value at year-end. Three companies (MP Materials, Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources Limited) dominated this statistic and accounted for almost CAD$13 billion (approximately 75%) of the total value, making them all 600-pound gorillas – you can see the breakdown below:
Companies Ranked by Market Capitalization
Top Five Rare Earths for 2021
It would be too easy to simply pull off the top five companies by market cap from the table above. However, it is not just about market capitalization, despite one commonly held belief (the “efficient market hypothesis”) that market capitalization is the sum total of all factors and accounts for everything known and unknown.
In fact, there are many other factors to consider. Inefficiencies in the market have demonstrated this point, as have other unknowns, which when brought to light, can cause a material change in share price (up or down). For example, despite the significant size of Iluka, their demerger of the company’s former royalty business, Deterra Royalties, resulted in a significant reduction in share price and valuation.
So who do we really, really like for 2021? Our top five is below. Your picks may differ:
Number 1: (tied) Lynas Rare Earths (LYC: ASX) and MP Materials (NYSE: MP)
Number 2: Australian Strategic Materials (ASX: ASM)
Number 3: Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO)
Number 4: Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU | TSX: EFR)
Number 3: Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO)
You can have the best project in the world, the cheapest extraction costs and be in the best markets, but the secret of every successful company boils down to just one thing – it is only ever about the people. In the case of Neo, I am of course referring to the fact that world-renowned rare earths executive, Constantine Karayannopoulos, took the helm as President and CEO at Neo in July 2020.
Notwithstanding, Neo has many things going for it, including the only other rare earths processing facility in the world that is not in China (it is located in Estonia). In addition, the company has 11 manufacturing facilities around the world and is a world leader in innovation and the production of permanent magnet powders, through its Magnaquench business unit. Neo has also been touted as a takeover target for MP Materials, as several Neo assets were once part of Molycorp, but with Neo’s prospects, it is likely that the shareholder base would demand a massive premium to approve that transaction.