"what will happen if the stock markets start to fall ...... in earnest. I suspect everything will get sold and sold hard." - Flopticalcube
Yes, I believe you are right that a substantial decline in the stock market has the potential to cause a panic. However I am less sure of what you mean about "Price says otherwise." Are you saying that the price of gold today indicates that a new uptrend in PM is unlikely or impossible? I don't understand the relationship you see between POG spot today and the probability of global macroeconomic conditions reflecting increased market risk and a movement of capital to a safe haven.
IMO POG is mostly a reflection of market sentiment toward other assets; which is good as that allows us to use data from throughout the economy instead of just guessing what gold may or may not do in the future in relationship with the US$.
b.