We forecast Q1/24 adjusted EBITDA of $965mm; in line with consensus of $981mm. Our forecast calls for adjusted EBITDA to decline 32% y/y. As in recent quarters, we expect the y/y decline in adjusted EBITDA to be driven by lower fertilizer prices (prior-year comp still difficult). That said, we expect all three of NTR's wholesale segments to see positive y/y sales volume growth in Q1/24 (consistent with what was observed in Q4/23), while we also expect the Retail segment's adj. EBITDA to show y/y improvement (although we note that Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter for Retail).
Fertilizer Price Update: Fertilizer price performance since late-February 2024 (when NTR reported Q4/23 results) has been mixed (although price pressures have been more prevalent than price increases). Although both held in well through much of March, Midwest potash and NOLA urea have been two of the weakest performers since late- February 2024 (-10% and -16%, respectively, as a result of more recent price declines). By comparison, Tampa ammonia and phosphate prices have been relatively steady in recent months, while Brazil potash stands out as one of the few key benchmark nutrients to have seen price appreciation of-late (+10% since late-February).
Updated Estimates: We have made various adjustments to our forecasts, although on the whole, our consolidated estimates are not materially changed.
NTR's 2024 guidance/outlook will be a key area of focus when results are released, although perhaps not to the same degree as in the past, given NTR now provides guidance on fewer metrics. Our full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $5.589bln is in line with consensus of $5.597bln.