TSX:NTR - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Sep 22, 2023 9:01am
TD
Nutrien Ltd.
(NTR-N) US$62.93
Summary of Group Investor Meeting Event
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12-Month Target Price: US$81.00 |
12-Month Dividend (Est.): US$2.16 |
12-Month Total Return: 32.1% |
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We hosted Nutrien management for a virtual group investor meeting. In attendance from Nutrien's senior management team were: Mark Thompson (EVP, Chief Commercial Officer) and Jeff Tarsi (EVP and President of Global Retail).
Impact: NEUTRAL
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Overall, we characterize the meeting's tone as favourable. Further, we see the information provided as generally supportive of our constructive view on NTR and broadly consistent with the outlook communicated alongside Q2/23's results.
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The most prominent theme evident throughout the meeting was management's suggestion that after a very volatile 18-month period (impacted by the Russia- Ukraine war), NTR has seen and continues to see a process of normalization take hold in terms of demand trends across the business.
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Within the Potash segment, NTR believes that market demand behaviour is normalizing (aided by the recent stabilization and subsequent upturn in potash prices). Management is encouraged by the recent Q4/23-delivery buying it has seen in North America (at $400/st Midwest; +$30/st from its Q3/23 fill program). Although some offshore markets have been slower to re-engage (i.e., SE Asia), management is generally encouraged by offshore demand improvements and sees potential for meaningful global potash shipment growth in 2024 (NTR forecasts 2023 shipments at 63mm–65mm tonnes).
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Regarding nitrogen, NTR is constructive on the market's fundamentals through the balance of 2023 and heading into 2024. Management sees nitrogen supply as tight and expects ammonia prices to firm further over the near-term.
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Within Retail, crop nutrient and crop protection margins were said to have largely normalized in North America. With the North American harvest off to an early start, management expressed optimism that a broad window for fall fertilizer application would result. NTR expects grower sentiment to remain strong.
TD Investment Conclusion
We remain constructive on NTR. We are encouraged by recent evidence of a general firming in fertilizer prices and management's suggestion that it is seeing a return to more normal crop input demand trends. We continue to view NTR as offering relatively attractive value. We reiterate our BUY rating.
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