TSX:NTR - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Jan 25, 2024 11:24am
BMO
BMO’s Joel Jackson cut his Nutrien Ltd. to US$80 from US$86 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$71.34.
“Ahead of Q4 earnings season, we mark to market all our models for commodity price moves, specific developments etc. This leads to slightly lower 2024E estimates for fertilizer and lithium stocks — we lower some fertilizer target prices accordingly,” he said. “This follows continued underperformance by most of our coverage, which we still deem overdone as we deem both ag and lithium sentiment too negative and see underappreciation that current crop input earnings levels could be new mid-cycle levels, but current multiples (e.g., ferts 5-6 times 2024 estimated EV/EBITDA) remain 2-3 times below mid-cycle averages. We see asymmetrical upside risk for lithium, as well as improving spot nitrogen prices/earnings (positive moves in gas and urea partially offset by weaker ammonia). We continue to prefer CTVA in crop inputs and ALB in lithium, and also recommend NTR, MEOH, CF, SQM, SGML and K+S.”
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