High Debt, 30% base declineWith $600MM of current total debt (maybe $550MM at YE) their 3.2X debt to trailing CF is high. Using current SP and share count and assuming debt of $550MM, their EV is ~ $720MM.
With 50K boepd as their forecast, that puts NVA at $14,400 boepd now. They also say they have to spend $140MM to keep production flat in 2021 (September Presentation). A 30% base decline is higher than average.
They had 65% of gas production hedged at C$1.92 mcf from July until end of October so only now can see the uplift on stronger gas prices.
Watching, but not buying the story.