Canada will fall short of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, unless it takes actions beyond the efforts already underway, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) said on Tuesday.
The CER's annual report laid out three scenarios around Canada's net-zero 2050 goal, an ambition that other countries have adopted as well. The report did not make recommendations on how to meet the goal.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has implemented a carbon tax and is planning regulations to reduce emissions from electricity, fuel, and oil and gas production.
The possibility that the world's fourth-largest oil producer may miss its net-zero goal shows the challenge of cutting emissions on a national scale despite the urgency of global warming.
"It's a very ambitious and challenging goal to meet for Canada," CER chief economist Jean-Denis Charlebois told reporters. "Every industry, every province, everyone will need to make a difference."
The government has acknowledged previously that further actions are needed for Canada to reach the 2050 goal, a senior official said.
The report said Canadian oil production will continue to grow until late this decade due to high prices, even if Canada steps up emissions-cutting efforts.
In its most optimistic scenario, in which Canada reaches net-zero by 2050 through new actions and the world limits global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Canadian crude production would peak in 2026. Output would fall to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, from a record 5 million bpd in 2022.
In a scenario in which Canada achieves net-zero by 2050 but the rest of the world moves more slowly, Canadian oil production would rise until 2029, the report said.
Under the third scenario, in which Canada and the world take little additional action to reduce emissions, Canadian oil production would peak in 2035.
If Canada does achieve net-zero by 2050, it will be producing electricity by almost entirely zero-emission or low-emissions technologies, led by a sharp increase in wind generation, the report said.
Electricity demand will double by 2050 if Canada achieves the 2050 goal, the CER said.