Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, February 14, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 46 cents from $1.97 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday. The Henry Hub spot price has averaged $1.88/MMBtu so far this month, the lowest inflation-adjusted monthly average since at least January 2000 based on data from Natural Gas Intelligence. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 35.8 cents, from $1.967/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.609/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2024 through February 2025 futures contracts declined 22.4 cents to $2.417/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 7, to Wednesday, February 14). Price changes ranged from a decrease of $0.64/MMBtu at Malin to an increase of $1.00/MMBtu at Algonquin Citygate.
  • Prices in the Northeast were volatile this report week as temperatures fluctuated. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up $1.00 from $2.34/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.34/MMBtu yesterday, making it the highest-priced hub in the United States and one of the very few hubs to have a price increase week over week. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 28 cents from $1.68/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.40/MMBtu yesterday. The price at the Algonquin Citygate reached an intraweek high on Monday of $6.02/MMBtu, and the price at the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 reached an intraweek high of $2.25/MMBtu on Tuesday, when temperatures decreased. Average temperatures in the Boston Area started this report week at 35°F, reached an intraweek high of 48°F on Saturday, and then decreased again to 31°F yesterday. Although the price at the Algonquin Citygate was the highest in the country yesterday, it is historically low for this time of year. The price at the Algonquin Citygate has averaged $4.31/MMBtu so far this month, 51% lower than the February 2023 average price and 67% lower than the February 2022 average price. 
  • Prices in Texas decreased this report week. The price at the Katy Hub fell 15 cents from $1.48/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.33/MMBtu yesterday. The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 31 cents this report week, from $1.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.94/MMBtu yesterday. The price at the Katy Hub has averaged $1.53/MMBtu so far this month, which is 26% lower than the February 2023 average and 66% lower than the February 2022 average. Similarly, the month-to-date Waha price is averaging 40% lower than February 2023 and 76% lower than February 2022. 
  • Prices in the Midwest also remain historically low for this time of year. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 18 cents from $1.67/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.49/MMBtu yesterday. So far this month, the Chicago Citygate price is averaging $1.70/MMBtu, 27% lower than the February 2023 average and 62% lower than the February 2022 average. Average temperatures in the Chicago Area were similar to last week’s average at 39°F, and total consumption of natural gas in the Midwest was relatively flat week over week, decreasing by 1.5% (0.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • Prices in the West decreased this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 62 cents, down from $3.54/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.92/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 21 cents from $3.01/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.80/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, fell 55 cents from $2.48/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.93/MMBtu yesterday. The month-to-date average prices for all three Western price hubs were more than 50% lower than their February 2023 averages and more than 35% lower than their February 2022 averages.
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia fell 4 cents to a weekly average of $9.42/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands fell 81 cents to a weekly average of $8.26/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending February 15, 2023), the prices were $17.91/MMBtu in East Asia and $16.68/MMBtu at TTF. 
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 1 cent/MMBtu, averaging $7.73/MMBtu for the week ending February 14. Weekly average ethane prices fell 7%, following weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel, which fell 13%. The ethane premium to natural gas fell 1% week over week. The ethylene spot price remained relatively unchanged, increasing the ethylene premium to ethane by 5%. The average weekly propane price fell 2%, while the Brent crude oil price rose 5%. The propane discount relative to crude oil increased 25% week over week. Normal butane prices rose 4%, isobutane prices remained relatively unchanged, and natural gasoline prices rose 7%. 

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell slightly by 0.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew slightly by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 104.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 9.1% (0.5 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.0% (1.8 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 5.5% (1.9 Bcf/d) week over week as average temperatures across most of the country were higher than normal. Natural gas consumed for power generation increased by 0.6% (0.2 Bcf/d), while industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.3% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 6.8% (0.4 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.8 Bcf/d, or 0.5 Bcf/d higher than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 3.8% (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.3% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 19.9% (0.6 Bcf/d) to 3.5 Bcf/d. Most of the increase in South Texas occurred at the Corpus Christi LNG terminal, where natural gas receipts increased by 28% (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week after declining by a similar amount the previous report week. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d. 
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; five from Cameron; three each from Calcasieu Pass, Corpus Christi, Freeport, and Elba Island; and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 90 Bcf departed the United States between February 8 and February 14, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 6, the natural gas rig count increased by 4 to 121 rigs. The Haynesville, Marcellus, and Permian each added two rigs. The Barnett dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs was unchanged at 499 rigs. The Cana Woodford dropped two rigs, and the DJ Niobrara dropped one rig. One rig was added in the Granite Wash, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, increased by 4, and it now stands at 623 rigs. 

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Storage

• Net withdrawals from storage totaled 49 Bcf for the week ending February 9, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 149 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 117 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,535 Bcf, which is 348 Bcf (16%) more than the five-year average and 255 Bcf (11%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 48 Bcf to 82 Bcf, with a median estimate of 65 Bcf.
• The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 12% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 10.9 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 1,981 Bcf on March 31, which is 348 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.