TSX:NVA - Post Discussion
Post by
Carjack on Feb 23, 2024 1:31pm
Nat gas weekly
Market Highlights:
(For the week ending Wednesday, February 21, 2024)
Prices
Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.
- Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 9 cents from $1.51 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.60/MMBtu yesterday.
- Henry Hub futures price: The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract increased 16.4 cents, from $1.609/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.773/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2024 through February 2025 futures contracts climbed 19.1 cents to $2.608/MMBtu.
- Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell slightly at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 14 to Wednesday, February 21). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 99 cents/MMBtu at Algonquin Citygate to an increase of 14 cents/MMBtu at Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus.
- Prices in the Northeast were mixed this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 99 cents from $3.34/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.35/MMBtu yesterday. Prices this month at the Algonquin Citygate have averaged $3.82/MMBtu through February 21, 2024, 56% lower than the February 2023 average and 71% lower than the February 2022 average. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 12 cents from $1.40/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.52/MMBtu yesterday. Supply into the region increased with the arrival of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo (see LNG section below). Average temperatures in the Boston Area fell 8°F week over week to 31°F, resulting in 240 heating degree days (HDD), 58 HDDs more than the previous report week and 11 HDDs above normal. Similar temperature changes were seen throughout the Northeast. Natural gas consumption in the region rose 20% (4.7 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), led by a 35% increase (4.1 Bcf/d) in residential and commercial sector consumption, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
- Prices in the Midwest were relatively unchanged this report week but remain historically low for this time of the year. At the Chicago Citygate, the price of natural gas fell 1 cent from $1.49/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.48/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at the Chicago Citygate this month averaged $1.63/MMBtu through yesterday, 31% lower than the February 2023 average and 64% lower than the February 2022 average. Total natural gas consumption in the Midwest rose 15% (2.5 Bcf/d), led by a 22% (1.8 Bcf/d) increase in residential and commercial sector consumption this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Average temperatures in the Chicago Area fell 3°F week over week to 36°F, resulting in 202 HDDs, 21 HDDs more than the previous week but 46 HDDs below normal. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector rose 10% (0.4 Bcf/d), while industrial sector consumption rose 7% (0.3 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
- The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 18 cents this report week, from $0.94/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.76/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded 85 cents below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded 57 cents below the Henry Hub price. Waha prices reached an intraweek low on February 20 of $0.41/MMBtu after El Paso Natural Gas declared force majeure on February 19, reducing westbound capacity on Line 2000 through the Gila constraint. California-bound net natural gas outflows from the Permian Basin fell 3% (0.1 Bcf/d) on the week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
- The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California stayed level week over week at $2.92/MMBtu. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 19 cents from $2.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.61/MMBtu yesterday. Reduced natural gas flows on El Paso Natural Gas into California had little effect on prices in the state. Temperatures in California were mild for this time of year, reducing demand for natural gas for space heating. In the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, the temperature averaged over 56°F this report week, resulting in 59 HDDs, 32 HDDs below last week. In the San Jose Area, south of San Francisco, temperatures averaged close to 58°F, resulting in 48 HDDs, 41 HDDs fewer than last week.
- International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia fell 77 cents to a weekly average of $8.65/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands fell 51 cents to a weekly average of $7.75/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending February 22, 2023), the prices were $15.34/MMBtu in East Asia and $15.64/MMBtu at TTF.
- Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 11 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.62/MMBtu for the week ending February 21. Weekly average ethane prices fell 5%, and natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 8%, reducing the ethane to natural gas premium by 3% week over week. The ethylene spot price fell 2%, and the ethylene premium to ethane changed less than 1%. Average weekly propane prices fell 1%, while the Brent crude oil price rose 1%. The propane discount relative to crude oil increased 5% week over week. Normal butane and natural gasoline prices remained relatively unchanged, and isobutane prices fell 1%.
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Supply and Demand
- Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.4% (0.5 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.8% (0.8 Bcf/d) to average 103.8 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 6.4% (0.3 Bcf/d) from last week.
- Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 9.2% (8.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption increased by 19.4% (6.4 Bcf/d) week over week as average temperatures in many population centers declined compared with last week. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose 3.0% (1.0 Bcf/d), and industrial sector consumption increased by 3.3% (0.8 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.6% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.6 Bcf/d, or 0.3 Bcf/d lower than last week.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased by 1.9% (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 4.5% (0.4 Bcf/d), to 8.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 4.6% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 3.5 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside of the U.S. Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d.
- Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi; three each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport; two from Cove Point; and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 97 Bcf departed the United States between February 15 and February 21, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
- Vessels arriving at U.S. ports: One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf was docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between February 15 and February 21, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
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Rig Count
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, February 13, the natural gas rig count was unchanged at 121 rigs. The Haynesville added one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 2 rigs to 497 rigs. The Granite Wash added two rigs, the Ardmore Woodford, Cana Woodford, and Permian each dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 621 rigs.
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Storage
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 60 Bcf for the week ending February 16, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 168 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 75 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,470 Bcf, which is 451 Bcf (22%) more than the five-year average and 265 Bcf (12%) more than last year at this time.
- According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 51 Bcf to 88 Bcf, with a median estimate of 64 Bcf.
- The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 17% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 8.8 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,084 Bcf on March 31, which is 451 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.
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