"tried and true"? —QH on the MOY millWith all due respect, Tx, I don't typically "wrap my head around" assurances, especially unsubstantiated ones, even if they come from knowledgeable and articulate sources such as yourself, or even the most brilliant and enthusiastic ones like QH, and especially those assurances for which there are grounds for at least potentially thinking otherwise. It's called an open mind. Others might say "Oh ye of little faith." :^)
QH has gone on record stating that the MOY mill is "tried and true," https://www.kereport.com/2020/08/04/novo-resources-a-focus-on-the-purchase-of-the-millennium-mill-to-fast-track-the-move-to-production/ and yet I wonder, if IMC pumped the better part of $67MM into getting that mill operational "last year alone," if that mill might not just be a money pit https://ceo.ca/nvo?d011bb6efdb5
It had not escaped me that NVO has not taken the mill for a "test drive," but it apparently has not been running on all cylinders for Millennium either. Seems to me that for any investor, or potential investor in NVO, that is something worth considering, not just dismissing with assurances.
Now, I know that KW is not the most popular person on these boards, but personalities aside, claims have been made. For the record:
"Brian Rear [CEO MOY] sold Beatons Creek to Novo because they never considered the material amenable to the CIL [Carbon-In-Leach] plant long before subsequent management ran into problems with the refractory ore." https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/moy-class-action.5216323/page-135?post_id=43498205
QH has given some the impression that the mill is not only suitable for BC ore, but that some BC ore has actually been processed through the plant ("Our ore goes through the Millennium mill no problem"). I presume that impression must be justified based on a belief that the circuit a bulk sample BC ore actually has been processed through is, in essence, similar to a circuit available for processing BC ore in the MOY mill ("We have done all necessary test work in preparation") Source: https://ceo.ca/nvo?401db185d83e Aside, evidently, from "a few minor tweeks and modifications" https://www.kereport.com/2020/08/04/novo-resources-a-focus-on-the-purchase-of-the-millennium-mill-to-fast-track-the-move-to-production/ In that post noted above by KW, he goes on to state: "My bet the original plant circuitry notwithstanding its age and refurbishment cost would not satisfactorily recover gold from the Beatons Creek [BC] ore full of barren cobbles and a very high gravity gold content in the ore stream. They would have to blend and that then introduces another problem -they need the oxide ore resources along the Mosquito Creek succession - where there is still huge potential -far easier than Beatons Creek." This concern might be moot, correct me if I'm wrong, as I think NVO may already have acquired exactly those resources: https://ceo.ca/index?f7822b9181cb Be that as it may, I asked @smoj on hotcopper (who worked at the MOY mill) about the oxide circuit (which presumably is what NVO will use for processing BC ore, through the CIL circuit... I'm not familiar enough with the mill at this point to know for sure), he responded: "Hi stocksluice,
"No worries at all, happy to put our side of the story across.
"The oxygenation part of the circuit hadn't been commissioned yet when the hammer came down. The tanks for the slurry to be oxygenated after the vertimills were in, but not connected (and only fibreglass). The storage bullet for the oxygen had gone in, but we went into administration as the guys were finishing the job (BOC i think). As they were not sure if they'd get paid, they downed tools and hung around for a couple of days before they flew out.
"We needed oxygen for the CIL tanks, and had issues with our PSA (oxygen production) plant for the CIL circuit, so we used the BOC bullet to clear all the ROM stocks when we shut down. So the oxygen bullet works, it just needs to be topped up by truck. Not sure if the PSA plant was supposed to feed oxygen to the bullet, but the two plants were physically close, so it's a possibility.
"Nobody bothered to let us know what/why/how, so the oxygenation equipment was a bit of a mystery. In principle, it should all connect up and go. Good luck with that... I have no idea." https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/moy-class-action.5216323/page-160?post_id=44593114 For the record here, two other posts by @smoj on hotcopper give some idea of what the guys running that plant were dealing with: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/moy-class-action.5216323/page-117?post_id=43328905
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/moy-class-action.5216323/page-125?post_id=43335475 As for the water issue, more assurances from BM: "Novo has bore holes that provide a lot more water than MOY every had." Not that I doubt Bob in that regard, but it would be nice to have more speciflc details on that crucial issue. E.g., why do NVO's bore holes have more water than MOY's?
QH says, aside from permitting, which is anticipated to be straightforward (WA apparently is redefining the meaning of bureaucracy), just "a few minor tweeks and modifications" to the mill are required. I hope so, but the road could be a bit rockier than anticipated, and the timeline might be overly optimistic. Time will tell...
Like I said, my expectations are for a modest minimum of $10MM FCF for 1Q2021 out of that mill. I gather that relatively speaking my expectations are quite low, which means I'll also be more readily impressed, and less likely to be disappointed. Yes, I'm in wait and see mode. I call it risk management. Others may feel they know better than most. Maybe they do... and then again, maybe they don't. It doesn't matter, because, if, at the end of the day, NVO really is the real deal that we all hope it will be, there will be plenty of time to get on board, and lots of money to be made along the way for everyone. Here's hoping...
BTW, BM went on to say, further to the above: "It's important to understand that the whole MOY sage was a total disaster from the gitgo. There never was adult management just a bunch of guys way over their heads. While Australia has some of the finest mining people in the world they have an equal number of idiots." https://ceo.ca/nvo?a3c406ced332
In that regard, I should let @smoj have his say:
"I was just one cog in the machine. Many more stories from others there. We all bled bricks for that plant, and got paid below market rates for the privilege. "But there were some good people there. As in any mine, the key assets ar not the tons of steel and pipework, it's the people holding it all together with wishful thinking and personal sacrifice." https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/moy-class-action.5216323/page-121?post_id=43330975
Food for thought... Mmmm, that's the kind of nourishment I like wrapping my head around ;^) GLTA!