TXRogers wrote:
likeike wrote: Stocksluice what percentage of success would you put on Novo at this point.
I realize they are attempting something oh so unique and never attempted before(?)
on a serious basis. I would gladly except a range of 0 to 100% but having no mining
experience myself a worthless guess is all I could provide. IKE
Here is a serious response, Ike. A personal response. And one that will not delve into the technical or mining nuances of this story.
What I tend to do first and foremost is judge a company by its ability to execute on its declared task. Categories of "task" encompass that of explorer, developer, producer, royalty, and prospect generator.
Novo can be judged fairly easily. It had declared itself as an explorer that sought to become a successful producer. A formidable journey in the gold mining business. Any mining business for that matter. Even more so with unconventional prospects.
And despite some bumps along the way (always the case), Novo has executed on its stated goals to date. Inclusive of the once hotly debated goal of producing a recognized 43-101 report for nuggety coarse gold deposits.
Always remember my criteria for measuring success: As management's ability to execute on its declared goals.
Novo is already successful to date based on the above. So, I personally view Novo's chances of achieving further success as being extremely high. I will say well over 80% to place a figure to your question. And I don't want to get into what I see as the 20% risk at this time, but it pertains mostly to stock price and market reaction issues.
Finally, NVO is one of many stocks in my portfolio that are ALL selected to have high probability of success. That's why I hold all of them. And within this portfolio, I am extremely uncomfortable with any one holding running past 10% weight of the complete basket. I won't tolerate an individual holding exceeding 15%. So, a holding is permitted to exceed the 10% threshold in some special cases, but it will get trimmed back eventually - and relatively quickly in most cases.
Novo is now currently one of the top weights in my portfolio.
That's my response to your query.
Tx