Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s): OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.

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Obsidian Energy Ltd > October Cardium Production

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Comment by kavern23on Nov 20, 2021 3:13am

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Post# 34148914

RE:RE:October Cardium Production

The thing with Inplay is I should put some context in.
Really BNE and OBE are in much different spots then IPO and YGR. And the risk level prodction wise is obvously so much higher with IPO and YGR.

Both BNE and OBE have a large enough low decling legacy production that they can afford to have the odd drilling miss or pump problem when comoddity prices are strong and it isnt noticed.
Obe for example had strong octoer numners and Pembina isnt running much for Oct..didnt contribute much except for one well. But OBE is large enough it had PROP which it could increse and it did in Octover. Obe turned on more wells.

But YGR and IPO need to drill perfectly and problem free.
IPO has like 166 wells total and YGR has 163 wells...BNE and OBE are leagues higher well count.
IPO has a chance of turning into YGR V 2.0. YGR has great management as well as IPO. But the Cardium has drilling risk not that constant.

But remember YGR share price rise when it had drilling sucess back in what 2018 and then what happened when drilling got softer. Will that happen to IPO is the question...

IPO October production wasnt that bad. Still fine. IPO is the only Cardium company that didnt increase from Sept to Oct.
I peg IPO at 5932 BOE and I could slightly low on NGl's. But IPO was done about 143 on oil per day and that is something to watch for November. Light oil production is what is key for CF.

Average Oil Production (Bo)	2773
NG	2496
NGLS	663
Total	5932

So production hasnt tumbled drastically so far.

But not good part is ipo will produce less oil in nov. Their top 3 oil wells are hitting month 4 in november and they have a decline as they did like 275 oil pe day per well.
Wont do that in month 4...so know november will be lower.

And IPO is not drilling right now. They are going to decline in both nov and dec on oil while still potentiallly meeting overall target with stong ng anf ngls.

I really am concerned about what IPO's base production really is on light oil and then you look at the overall valuation and...