Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

October Cardium Production

[kavern23]

Data was released tonight.  I plowed through IPO, BNE, YGR, and OBE.
Going to do Petrus, IPCO, and CJ tommorrow.

I not only look at oil and gas rates, I also look at hours on the new wells to get a sense for November's production.  

Recap at a high level:

Bonterra has turned it around production wise. Basically since June to Sept Bne had really flat and low production compared to earlier in 2021. Trend wasnt good.
But they sure gained from Sept to Oct. At least some hope. 
I take the strike away I had for production for BNE. But problem still is the hedging and debt. IMO BNE would have been so much more investable if they would just have issued 10M shares even at 5.50 or 6 bucks if 7 wasnt doable and also show what the management sucession plan is.

Yangarra October was very interesting.  It looks quite encouraging and good from the surface.
Easily the highest oil, ng and total production out of any months in 2021. But my model is going to be least accurate as YGR caught such a break in west ferrier and I think some of that is not 100 percent owned. Those wells saved them in 2021.  I get 10200 BOE but I am likely overstating as their top 6 oil wells are all in west ferrier. Easy to see why companies are trying to drill in west ferrier like cenovis and taqa. YGR last 4 wells in west ferrier for each well 240-275 per day on oil alone.  My issue is YGR needs to show they can drill something good back in Cheddarville or another spot.  But west ferrier will carry them a few Q's. 

Obsidian had a strong October. Not counting NGL's, but with just oil and ng we gained 1750 BOE over the month of September.979 on oil and 767 on ng.
One of those bigoray wells, the one drilled into the blueridge really was stellar. Second best well OBE had going in October and did 245 barrels of oil assuming it ran 31 days. Odd part is the only two wells I can not get hours for is bigoray. I think Obsidian had them on confidential status.
It will be nice when we own PROP fully as they really f*cks with my adjust factor.  I have 25500 BOE but likely I am likely low as we had so much of our new wells at 100% owned. 25500-25800 BOE or Oct.
And we have a few wells with low hours meaning a later oct tie in and thus a strong nov.


Inplay. Not good. I will post if someone asks.


Hopefully WTI strenghtens next week. Things should turn around soon.  In the mean time OBE can collect CF

[BrownDog5340]

Please post Inplay

[kavern23]

The thing with Inplay is I should put some context in. Really BNE and OBE are in much different spots then IPO and YGR. And the risk level prodction wise is obvously so much higher with IPO and YGR. Both BNE and OBE have a large enough low decling legacy production that they can afford to have the odd drilling miss or pump problem when comoddity prices are strong and it isnt noticed. Obe for

[BrownDog5340]

Thanks Kav

[fullyautomatic]

Really great post! Thank you Kavern

[Tim14235]

Yes thank you. Now we need to worry about diffs blowing out with transmountain down. Saw 25 on wcs and 11 on ed par. Not good. Need to fix

[Helloworld]

Thank you for the insight Kavern. Question for you on OBE. With the knowledge on Oct production and company info on production online anticipated for Q4 and Q1 do you have an estimate for year end exit production and Q1 exit production? Thanks.

[kavern23]

No problem. I am very interested in the cardium so might as well share if I am doing it anyways. Assuming we aquire Prop...I think Obe can exit December 31, 2021 at 28,500 BOE, with room to revise up depending on Nov. Things look quite good. The well delays just push production later into the year. Obe's exit will be quite strong as 4 wells are supposed to be on from central/east crimson in

[Hendrick3]

I would be interested in IPO as I still hold some shares although 90% OBE

[Hendrick3]

Never mind I saw your later post. Greatly appreciate your analysis and insights.