RE:RE:October Cardium ProductionNo problem. I am very interested in the cardium so might as well share if I am doing it anyways.
Assuming we aquire Prop...I think Obe can exit December 31, 2021 at 28,500 BOE, with room to revise up depending on Nov. Things look quite good. The well delays just push production later into the year. Obe's exit will be quite strong as 4 wells are supposed to be on from central/east crimson in mid December. That should be 4 * 300 BOE = 1200 BOE addition....chance to do better then that.
I think OBE's production likely peaked for the quarter about right now Nov 20th or maybe as late as Nov 28th. Then OBE should peak in late Dec again.
They look to be cycling in the wells so that that first 2 monts of each quarter have highest production.
Decline rates still are not going to be much of an issue as OBE had only 2 wells in the cardium that are really screaming...think it is called 3-3 pad.
OBE is buildling up a nice collection of 70-170 barrels a day oil wells..which is good as it is more stable month tot month.
Mid January OBE is supposed to tie ing a 2 well pad in Crimson that should offset the 3 3 which will have declined by Mid Jan.
Management looks to be trying to keep constant Q growth with tie in pace.
I can't predict that accurate of a exit for Q1 2022 yet but I think OBE can hit 30000 BOE at some point in Q1 2022. I see OBE spudded another PROP well today at Walrus, lots to tie in for Q1.
If drilling remains this way going forward with the rigs...I would guess around June-Aug is when it becomes harder for OBE to grow...ie the decline treadmill becomes hard each month to grow....but so far so good.
Things are shaping up nicely. A strong WTI week would be nice.
Helloworld wrote:
Thank you for the insight Kavern. Question for you on OBE. With the knowledge on Oct production and company info on production online anticipated for Q4 and Q1 do you have an estimate for year end exit production and Q1 exit production? Thanks.