RE:RE:RE:RE:Q3 ReflectionsOne of the things I like most about bouncing along the bottom, is that any one of numerous events can lift you higher.
You don't need to correctly forecast which event will happen or when.
Loukas et al probably know exactly what they want to do with OBE in 2023.
So why are they waiting until Mid December to make it public?
They will already know the estimated production rates of additional wells in each area.
They're 2023 capex is not dependant on bank borrowing - so its not as if they have to wait for their bank syndicate to get back to them.
What advantage is there to waiting 5 weeks?
Your guess is as good as mine.
My guess is it has to do with oil and gas pricing.
In Mid December the price of oil and gas may be quite a bit higher. That may allow them to go back to a $90-120 WTI forecast. The midpoint would give them a very nice looking 2023 forecast.
By mid December the US should start to see some noticable weekly oil inventory draws (SPR winding down, and refinery production increasing). North America will be in the Nat Gas drawdown period, and US LNG export facilities may be working at higher capacity.
By mid December the $ cap on Russian oil exports should have been announced. That is bound to cause some supply chain hickups, if not supply reduction.
These are just the things we know for certain. The unknowns, like facilities getting blown up can happen any day.