Thoughts on recent events
Much has occured in recent days.
1. The Woodland Cree First Nation.
In my view OBE is dealing with this problem perfectly. The Woodland Cree (WC) land claims were settled with Canada in 1991 in exchage for $57,712,000, and 35,200 acres.
The WC blockade is about an hour's drive from their reserve - one way! Thats a long way up there. There is no traffic and probably very few speed traps to slow you down.
Apparently the Woodland Cree have been pulling this same scam for at least 15 years. Someone has to stand up to them, and I'm very please to be a shareholder in the company who is doing just that.
In my view, the WC don't have any legal threads to pull, which means the Alberta Courts are the best place to sort this out.
I suspect Woodland Cree Industries Ltd will be a pariah on tender bids going forward. After this display, who would want to hire them?
I also suspect the probability of this matter getting resolved one way or the other this week is high. (If not this week, then the probability increases the following week, etc)
2. Current Production.
The announcement of 40,000 boe per day including the 4500 boe shut in by the WC blockade is fabulous news. So good it makes one almost forget about the blockade. The Q1 NR was disappointing because of its production. That production has now arrived - and then some! That said, this is probably a daily figure. It may be ahead of their monthly production, but it is a lovely indication of what is to come.
3. Reduction in Capex.
They announced a small reduction in their 2024 Capex, while indicating the number of new wells drilled in H2 will not change. This implies cost savings.
4. Purchase of Woodcote's Dawson Production/Land.
This is interesting. Looking closer, it gets even more interesting. The cost (about $80 million) is coming from their line of credit (ie they had enough space on their line of credit to pay for this purchase).
This means their line of credit will be close to maxed when this deal closes.
It also means they will no longer have $60 million of unused space on their credit line - which I understand is a requirement for OBE to be able to buy back shares.
It also appears OBE has put its Viking holding up for sale.
Connecting all the dots, suggests OBE is in the process of swapping its Viking holding for the Woodcote production/land, and is bridge financing the deal internally. When done, the Credit Line spare capacity may be back to about where it was before, with no impact on their Share Buy Back.
I really like this idea. It increases the probability OBE will achieve 50,000 boe/day by expanding PROP production, AND be able to maintain that level of production for years. ie get full share value for 50,000 of production in or about 2026.
What I'm expecting next
If my view is correct, I'm expecting two news releases in the near term, both of which I suspect may be share price positive.
One is that the Woodland Cree are forced to stop preventing OBE from using its road, so OBE can restart the shut in 4500 boe. There is no reason why the WC can't enjoy their hunting camp on the grass next to OBE's road, while OBE also uses its road.
The second is an annoucement OBE has sold its Viking property.
These are my thoughts - please form your own opinions - mine may be completely wrong!