Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Prop 2022 Guidance on new 45

[kavern23]

It is frustrating they only give netback and nothing more on the PROP 45 stuff for 2022

I modeled it as you have to capex it. Assume 14 MPROP capex overall and then 45 it.
At 70 WTI...the new 45 acquired should FCF 7M a Q or 28m a year.

If WTI is much higher then 70...PROP 45 is less then 1 year payback...

100% of Prop at 70 WTI is around 56 FCF on 14M capexor 70m CF.

[kavern23]

The 100% are slightly off but get idea. FCF and CF are higher.

[Hendrick3]

Thanks for this Kavern. No question this was a good deal. Next year at $80 oil is $5 / share FFO, more than our current stock price as you say.  the current stock issuance has created some play time for shorts and short term investors. In a couple of weeks the reality of a massively undervalued stock will become apparent.  I hear Comments from panicky investors that they should not

[kavern23]

No Problem.  I wanted to do more due diligence on OBE last night as it gives me further confidence to buy with zero restraint  I hope panicky investors that think OBE shouldnt have done this deal just sell and move on. Obe doesnt need those investors. 

[SchoolNmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[kavern23]

Moe...nice day so far.  I don't like to drink before noon but I am going to toast a ginger and crown royal to the shorts.... Short sellers would have wanted to think OBE would test 4.40 at our financing price...... Shorts are going to lose here. Very happy with how the day is shaping up. I want to see a plus 4.85 close today.

[masfortuna]

And you got your wish concerning the closing sp :)

[kavern23]

Masfortuna, I remember you from CJ boards from way back. Glad to see you have joined the Team Obsidian side :). Should be a new presentation on OBE website next week, right for Q3 release. Have a good weekend everyone and bring on next week trading already lol.

[masfortuna]

Thx Kavern.  Still hold some shares in CJ.  I have been here with OBE since the low $2s. Obe has had some issues over the last 2 years so the market has been hesitant to place funds in their hands BUT this has slowly changed as you can see the confidence building. A couple of quarters and this thing will start turning many heads (including Nutty). 

[Tim14235]

They need to play coy about PR so it closes.