Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Q3 Earnings

[JohnJBond]

OBE's Q3 earnings are fantastic.

These are operating earnings too - no one time additions from sale of assets etc.

$46.6 million in Q3.    About 62c/share - or about $2.48 per year.

Imagine finding a company with a PE of 2!

Thats from a quarter with average WTI about $70.62

Compare this with Baytex for example.

BTE had earnings of $33 million or 6c/share.  

OBE had 10X the earnings per share of BTX!

Or

Compare this with Crescent Point

CPG had earnings of $775. million, or 13c/share.

OBE had 4.8 X the earnings per share of CPG!

[Tim14235]

Lets not get too proud.  These are from impairment reversals

[JohnJBond]

No they are not from impairment reversals. The impairment reversals were in Q2, which is why  they had earnings of $322 million in Q2. Q3 earnings are operating results.

[kavern23]

No, not that earnings really matter but we did get an impairment reversal of 26.5M for Peace River..think would have done a reserve report to do the deal so not suprised they did a test here. and then negative 4.2 impairment charge for legacy asset decommissioning (good to do that...conservative approach). So 26.5 - 4.2 = 22.3 impairment reversal that made our deprectiation lower. So without this

[kavern23]

Forgot to add. We have more little good news. OBE will start Q4 with around a 22M gain if the Prop deal goes through in mid November. We only stated our share of reversal in Q3...so we get this. Actually could be slightly higher then this. So we will have a crushing Q4 earnings as well.

[JohnJBond]

Without the "extra" impairment reversal earnings would have been about 32c per share. ie, a PE of 4.   (and that is a trailing annualized number from WTI of $70.62 and after hedged gas at $3-4) Normally you only look at cash flow for Oil and Gas because they spend so much up front to drill that they have no earnings (overwhelmed by up front expenses).    

[Hendrick3]

No Tim you are wrong. Q3 62 cents per share earnings is all operational. It's easy to dismiss but the reality is that this is the most undervalued in the sector. 

[Hendrick3]

My sincere apologies Tim, I just saw Kavern's as always detailed analysis and there was some help from impairment reversals. To be fair though, without those reversals EPS still much better than higher priced competitors. I also agree with Kavern that FFO is the key metric and on that measure we are outperforming pretty much everyone relative to share price. 

[WanTBe1]

'Relationship damage': Healthier energy sector burned by lenders

[kavern23]

WTI is likely to sink more toewards 80-82 soon unless storage report turns momentum...still fine for OBE. The fact that BRENT can't break 85 is telling something.... MOE u know what this means lol

[Tim14235]

It will break if get a big draw. Biden showed today that he has no real cards to play. Air traffic is climbing big time. Traffic jams in my city are back. Weather getting cold. Hard to see anything but strength come winter

[JohnJBond]

Biden can huff and puff and sell a little bit more of the Strategic reserve fund, but what that signals is how real and how bad the energy crisis is, and how its going to get worse. Very few seem to be noticing how much energy bitcoin is using - and pretty well doubling every year right now. Global data centers apparenlty consumed around 205 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2018, or 1 percent of