Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Obe

[kavern23]

Obe is so tied to commodity prices holding strong rest of 2023....

More and more investors are probably getting more nervous on the sustianablity of oil holding and NG holding.

Hard to value OBE when everyone's cystal ball is very cloudy on forecasting right now.

NG went down 9% in one day...these are not real prices long term. Majoirty of commodity traders short term.

All the renewable assumptions are based on low oil and ng prices.
Califronia was supposed to be 35% electric cars by like 2026....and probably made sense at when WTI long term curve was 65-70 dollars.

Pump oil to110-120 dollars...and once EV's are available....this 35% of new sales could be some point in 2023 instead of 2026.  That is the danger with todays markets.

Look at the timing of NG spike....right before solar roof top installation season...we are watching the economics of roof top solar show and destroy power produced by NG.

Substution is going to be an issue.

Cost of living is one of the most serious issues facing North Americans.  Trudeau and Biden are winning as they are forcing consumers to some diffucult decisions.

Not being a debbie downer, but Whitecap, CJ, etc are not buying out other companies...these CEO's are not acting like this is sustainable prices.

[fortunefavorsus]

Wow you really drank the woke koolaid.  Everybody now knows green future is only for delusional fools and you have Europe as a prime example. Oil and Gas as the predominate energy source will be here long after you and I are dead.  

[kavern23]

I drink no koolaid....I am a fiscal conservative...basic economics that sky high prices cause substitution. Not saying oil and gas will go away.   Woke Europeans realized that during covid, low oil and gas prices slowed down renewable installation. When oil and gas prices are low....the only way to get really fast renewable installations was goverment rebates and subsidies. this is

[kavern23]

Woke Trudeau and the enviroment minister with the bowl haircut have gotten a gift...high gasoline prices are national headlines.  Instead of waiting until 2030 to have carbon tax push gas over 2 dollars a litre they have it now.  Vancouver is 2.17 litre. Kavern prefers 1.20-1.50 gasoline as it doesnt scare the sh*t out of consumers.

[JohnJBond]

Its not the number of new electric cars that get purchased. Its the number of internal combustion engine vehicles that come off the road. Wealthy people have choices, everyone else doesn't. As discretionary spending declines from inflation and higher interest rates, so does the ability to make choices with what you drive. Electric cars are expensive, and tend to appeal to the high tech

[fortunefavorsus]

There is a flood of illegals in the U.S.  I don't see them driving a Tesla but you never know Biden might give each one a  Ford/GM electric on entry into U.S.  They buy the old clunkers that get poor gas mileage.  Usually an oil Chrysler minivan type.  Most electric cars are expensive, extremely poor quality, and expensive to maintain.  Tell Biden we ain't

[kavern23]

Problem is going to be less and less old gas guzzling vechiles on the road. Auto sales have been really down in most countries since Coivd started. And if you look in April at the sales mix....the gas guzzling stuff like Expedition and Explorer fell 25-30% compared to 2021....for the Q.  Same with trucks. But Ford escape sales only down 2%. The working poor are just going to get auto loans

[TheRexmember]

Again Kavern, your analysis is backwards. If people aren't buying and driving new cars. What are they driving? You guessed it, old cars... those tax pools are going to be very important next year. Everyone has lowered costs so much that the price increase has made them so profitable that a lot of companies are going to have a huge increase in cash taxes next year. That will drive M and A

[Hendrick3]

If you have t bought back your OBE position yet, you better get on it Monday. A 9 handle in Canada is an aberration that won't likely be repeated in the months ahead. In fact it will be the new rags to riches story for those that are buying. I would hate to see you miss out. 

[JohnJBond]

Agreed - aberration seems like the right word  I look hard for something I may of missed. If it's there I can't see it If warren buffet is focused on buying oil shares (he can only buy large ones), then I expect smaller funds are thinking the same  I've had many of my top holdings get bought out over the years.    In each case the announcement was preceded

[Helloworld]

Hendrick. I think your opinion on things are generally good but the amount of money handed to management is wrong. You buying shares at 40 cents is a risk as if oil stayed at 40 to 50 obe probably goes under and any money goes to 0. SL and management are all very well paid and dont take the same risk. They have been handed about 45 million in cash in 15 months.. they may have had some to do with

[JohnJBond]

FYI, no one took $45 million in cash out of OBE in the last 15 months. Your MEG example has about 8.3 million in share performance units of one kind or another reported in their most recent quarterly report (way back on page 24).   At Friday's market price, that is about $174 million. The difference is OBE accounts for their performance payment on a cash basis.   Which in

[Hendrick3]

I agree that this is over the top compensation. A shareholders group that I participated in fought it vigorously in July 2020 and very narrowly lost. The biggest beneficiary was Loukas who chose to take his $600,000 CEO salary in phantom stock at 55 cents a shares. None of us liked that but Loukas could have just as easily taken his salary and bought them on the market. The issue was lost in July

[TheRexmember]

I truly don't care about the comp.  600k is a steal for a ceo. That is a lot less than most 2000 boe/d micro caps we're paying a few years. The fact that he took it all in shares shows how committed he is. A great management team is expensive. Penn West was a tire fire for so long it amazes me that anyone would possibly b!tch about compensation when the company is up about 500

[pennydredful]

$600000.00 is  a steal  for a  CEO  .Nope . At  .55    he   got 1090,909  shares,  now  worth    north  of 10  million  dollars  .  Yes that  was   a "steal"   but not for  the company or its shareholders  .  What is surprising  is 

[JohnJBond]

K yes fuel is more expensive but the roads are still full of cars  I paid $2.31 / L yesterday for premium  Truckers will be paying $1200-1500 to fill up But we all still fill up.    Actual demand destruction looks like the road traffic during the first Covid lock downs    Empty shopping center car parks and very few cars on the road     That'

[kavern23]

I think we all can agree keeping average down cash available...aka....bullets is needed...... Oil is down 2 bucks right now in overnight trading....see if it turns by morning.  2 down in evening usually means a bad next day. John have some cash ready if this tests below 9 tomorrow.

[JohnJBond]

Oil is showing amazing strength in a rising USD.   Imagine what it looks like in yen   Oil May of been down $2 an hour or so ago but it's up as I write this  Even with Dow futures off 300 plus 

[kavern23]

Yeah, the Japan oil ban of Russia oil turned things around tonight.  Japan only imports 3.6% of oil from Russia in March but it could change sentiment. Japan gets most oil from Saudia and UAE. Basically any countires that were planning to ban internal combustion engine at some point in the future are the same countires that have announced Russia Oil bans. Japan is. Unless West and Europes

[kavern23]

Hopefully NG shows people the value of hedging....after down 50 cents on Friday...Natural gas 70 cents down today to 7.40.... The speed shows this was stupid speculation....greedy will get destroyed and lots of retail etf speculators dont have a f*ckin clue in what they are doing.

[pennydredful]

supply  chain  problems  slowly  new  vehicle  production  resulting  in short to  no  supply  , pushing up  prices   and   demand   for  used  vehicles.   Read  one article   where  guy  sold   a  5  year  old car   to a mass