RE:you should only be looking at EBITDAThe only thing that is important with this stock is if you believe Gold will stay in the 1500 to 2000
range for an extended period of time, and if you believe in the guidance of management.
If you believe Gold is going significantly lower, sell. If you believe management are knowingly
giving misleading guidance, then sell.
OGC is in the position it is in primarily because of the cessation of Didipio. Most other companies would be in hard shape if that amount of their cheapest cost production was stripped from them.
Lets forget about Didipio, and count it as a big bonus if it goes forward.
The company mid range guidance for this year is 360,000 ounces. Lets subtract 40,000
for the forward. Its mid rage AISC is 1,125. Lets use 1750 for average gold price realized.
Lets also used 10 million for taxes and 12 million for interest and 200 million for mid range capital costs not counted as substaining.
So you have 625 x 320,000 or 200 million minus 22 - 200 or a deficit of 22 million.
That deficit was more than made up by the 77 million on the balance sheet as cash by the
forward. So in essence they have 50 million extra plus the other 100 million in cash or so plus 50 million more in available credit.
Then in 2022 the non substaining capital costs go way down to 125 million , the AISC go down some and the production goes way up to 420. It gets way better further on.
This is all without Didipio and a gold price that is slightly lower than now.
Am I happy with how negotians with Didipio are dragging out. Of course not.
Do I wish they could sell it at half of what they put in it and walk away, I sure do
Was I happy about the weather and Covid and its impact on results - No
Was I happy about gold backing off of its rise and impacted all of the gold stocks - no
Do I think like a few on this site that this stock is worth a lot, no.
I think it may be worth 3$ in 9 months if all goes according to plan and gold stays where it is and no Didipio. If Gold goes higher it will be worth more and lower it will be worth less.
Same goes for the plan. If does high end of guidance then more and low end, less.
Also the new projects need to continue as advertised. ( more or less)
I have no problem waiting for a 50% gain with a possible bonus. ( under current forecast),
for a year. The company has a plan, so far, according
to my numbers, it is workable, and has been working, and until I see evidence to the contrary or macro conditions change significantly I will continue to hold.
Just my opinion, and done on the fly. I am going to relook at, when I have time but I do not
think anything significant will be discovered to change my opinion.