UpdateHi All,
It's been a year since I have posted on the bullboard, so I figured it was time to jump back on. Hopefully some investors smarter then me start chattering so we can all learn more about OGD and determine the value of this stock, the price is $0.98.
I think there are several items that could boost OGD over $1.00 and keep it there. You can see the stock bumping up against that $1.00 resistance. let's review:
-Year over Year(yoy) Drilling rates are down $10/meter. ($105/m to $95/m), Yet they seem to have similar yoy profitability. thats good, if rates move up, every +$5/m increase should be a direct +$0.05 eps.
- Average drilling meter/per rig/per year was 6074m/rig/yr in 2019, not looking at 2020 because pandemic.... using 2021 H1 numbers, 2021 is on pace for 6411m/rig. 6% increase. (I don't see this # in OGD's analysis but I think it is a good number operationally from an execution standpoint. (Maybe they use it?))
-Looks like we are on pace for 2019 total meters drilled: 1.4-1.5 million, However, 2019 rates were 10-15% higher.
-Hopefully, this legal battle is an actual win and twill result in single qtr boost of $0.05 eps in the next 6 months. But maybe appeals courts can drag out for years, who knows.
-A Chile copper drill project is starting this qtr, the fact that is mentioned in the opening paragraph makes me think it is more than 1 rig. Any more information on this program?
-Looks like there was only $200,000 of CEWS aid, it always helps but it's not a business model.
Hopefully rates move back up over $100 and then OGD should be in the green.
I don't fully understand their $5.5million payment of debt and where the cash came from. Anyone?
Also, Regarding: the 'current portion of long term debt' ($24million) that is now in the current liabilities section that is coming due inNovember. In Management analysis they seem to gloss over and add a boiler plate statement that 'The Company can pay all debt requirements'? I assume they will just refinance by November and hopefully at a low rate?
good night!