RE:RE:ONC fair value is $152.36 CDN or $114USD Onc traded at $60+/ share years ago, when it was discovered that Pelareorep only lives in cancer cells.
brining up to todays standards.
RBC uses present value calculations of forward sales, based on an estimated market of $5billion/ year in sales.
That only includes MBc cancer treatment.
They do add significant upside with additional data.
a sp of $150 would indicate a market cap of $10billion.
That number has been suggested a few times. Actually range of $5 billion to $8 billion.
RBC being a Canadian bank. Ultra conservative has a $6 ps with an $18 upside on a partner or further clinical news.
The analysts numbers are all over the place.
From $3ps to $150 ps++
When playing with Pv estimates of future incomes any number can be generated by changing the discount rate.
RBC uses 30% of potential future value as a discount.
remove the 30% , you get $60ps on realized full value...assuming the sales numbers etc etc.
bottom line
ALL of the analysts consensus is buy or strong buy. With targets greater than where the price is now.
regardless of all that. Assuming there are buyout negotiations going on?
The price will be more than $1billion. Which is $15ps ( approximately).
could it be in the $5-$10billion range?
totally depends on the Pancreatic cancer trial results.
and......
As pointed out, majority of similar or less value pharma deals have been in that range.
Onc is a high risk high reward opportunity.
The day traders, getting all fuzzy making $100 here & there. Both on long & short trades.
Onc needs to provide an undate early March.
being yr end & Q4.
The analysts will be asking questions.
The sp estimates then will be quite interesting.
We can guess, estimate, calculate, speculate until we go blind; The pharma companies being Roche, Pfizer, Merck, & Incyte all have teams of people doing that job & ultimately will be all that matters.
If they see potential product sales & enhanced use of existing tecentriq for example.
THAT will form the basis of what they are willing to pay.
They also know once phase 3 starts with either Panc or MBc the risk ratio goes down.
im not endorsing any price, other than much higher than now.
The downside is little. The upside huge.
im not talking a day- day dime stuff.Announce a partner & price goes mid $15-$18.
buyout, more than that.
the ratio BTW is about $15usd/ billion.
we will see when we see & not before.
look back on the trends. Just before the A.N. Deal was announced. The SP was near all time low. Trading lethargic. Then the deal announcement, price took off.
one other interesting trend. The end of day support. Been going on a few weeks now.
same thing back just before A.N. Deal.