Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

H.C. mainwright re- issues buy rating @ $15 USD for oncy

[canadafan]

I can't access, but was contacted by someone who can.
H.C. Mainwright, today reinstated buy rating with $15 target.
that, & the silly low price IMHO is driving todays recovery.
long way to go.
before anyone comments. That number is interesting!
from one POV, quite high. The consensus average is around $$6-$7.
From a potential opportunity POV ...very low.
even the most conservative Estimate by RBC gives Onc an $18 upside, should they announce a phase 3 partnership or further results out of any study.
The HC mainwright uses standard present value discount of potential future earnings. 
they are using a 45% probability with MBc & 25% with panc @ a12% discount rate.
point being, when they get to phase 3 both MBc & panc double in probability.
the discount rate easily tripled.
moving the target well above $30.
people need to understand the trading price has little to to with ONCs real value.
The takeover value is based on potential future income.
The presentation June 2-6th, is expected to open some new eyes & windows.

[westcoast1000]

Sorry to correct you CF. Perhaps you misspoke. When the discount rate goes up, it lowers the present value. 

[canadafan]

Play on context of wording. they are using an assumption of 45% liklyhood of Pela working for mbc As things get closer that % of likelihood would go up. Without seeing the actual report, I can't comment on the 12% number. my assumption is that it is of the same context. i.e. Using 12% of the potential. not 12% discount. I'll look at RBC report which I can see. they use similar analysis