Norbord Inc. T.OSB

Question

[tiker22]

Why is this stock not trading at a 52-week high? Seems poised for very profitable next few quarters given housing starts, hurricane rebuild and new tax environment. Buying more on downturns.

[louiethelip]

its often darkest right before the sunrise

[carlocarli]

This is why:  (Source: https://www.randomlengths.com/Woodwire/RL-Lbr-Pnl/ ) Panel prices (and this includes OSB prices) are down over $100 from their third quarter peaks. Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 earnings will undoubtedly suffer. Nevertheless, the market's reaction does seem to be exagerated. The steep slide started the day before the ex-dividend date and continued unabated. I suspect

[tiker22]

Of all the Panel Composites, Oriented Strand Board seems to have decreased in price the most. It begs the question "Is Norboard flooding the market as is its history?"

[carlocarli]

IMHO, some of the price drop is seasonal. Quite simply, there is less construction going on during the winter. However, there is no doubt that Norbord and other producers have re-started idle capacity that became profitable at the higher OSB prices of a couple of months ago. The results were predictable.