RE:Peyto is selling forward 2020 productiondebt grew because of drilling to increase production;
maintenance capex is about 200-300mil lower than previous growth;
cash costs are $0.86/mcfe, so marginal barrels still add to the kitty;
of course PEY will make less money going forward; but it is also trading at 2.3x cash flow, compared to historical 5.7 or some; so all that stuff you talk about is already pretty much baked in; there's nothing new here, good or bad, if aeco firms up in the 2 dollar range, PEY will still be profitable and cash flow positive, under sustaining capex scenario; anything beyond that is gravy
will it go lower? who knows; when algos run wild, things like today happen; these same parabolic down moves happen to upside as well, so when the time comes, it'll be the same, just opposite direction; them puters are ruthless monsters ;)
i'm with poundsand; in and out with ebb and flow; can't beat the algos but sure can run with them here and there... that's the best longs can hope for at this point; and once the sentiment changes, we'll be well on our way back to 20's ... bottom line, PEY is one of the best operators relative to peers; good value here, irrespective of the volatility
imo