RE:thought experimentI disagree; I think this is a sentiment problem, not a big picture problem;
the sentiment is negative across O&G regardless of performance, seemingly; some marginal differences, but that's it;
if big picture is a problem, as you suggest, then please tell us what it is; if it is going green and all that, then I guess we all bettter get on our bikes and ride ... well ... I bet that ain't gonna happen; full cycle carbon foot print of renewables will crystalize and it won't be good news; carbon capture will reduce carbon based fuels impact, as commercially viable technology is being employes as I write this; oil demaind will likely grow for another 30 years and nat gas will be the bridge fuel, particularly with carbon capture in play; current carbon recovery gadgets pull the entire NG carbon footprint from the process, upstream, not just for the extraction, but for the entire lifecycle, including consumption - in other words, with current technology NG can have Zero carbon footprint, at a cost of about $100/tonne CO2; so if that's the big picture you speak of, then we're good, well, aside from the ignorant public and equally ignorant policy makers - if they wanted to solve the carbon issue, every upstream co would be deploying CO2 recovery now; instead we fiddle with carbon tax, which taxes most those that can afford it the least - the common working folk, that is while the so called intellectual elite makes BS policy that makes no environmental sense, scientifically speaking ..