RE:Quality and demand / lack of selling are driving priceAgreed, this stock is headed to $10+ this year. They have decent hedges and just have to excute.
Production will rise over 10,000 boe/d and will end the year at 97,000 boe/d. That combined with much higher prices (~2.50/mcf & 40/bbl) will see CF of $400 million and FCF of close to $200 million. They are ~72% hedge for 2021. Capex will run north of $325 million.
Don't antcipate any dividend increase but they should be able to repay $80 million in debt, leaving debt to EBIT at a manageable 2.4x by year end.
There is a unique situation arising in NA NG market. LNG demand is running hot at 11bcf/d due to sky high prices in Asia. Associated gas from shale oil is flat to down, so it won't be a headwind anytime soon. That leaves conventional gas to make up the difference. Any uptick in demand will see the market severly tighten in the second half of the year. If that happens... watch out, could see $4/GJ gas. The polar vortex has eveyone's attention right now.
PEY should see $20/shr by 2023. Giddy up. I wonder if YSL is still around :)