RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Why U.S. Shale Production Remains Stubbornly HighHoubahop,
You are clearly a respected and long-term poster to the Peyto BB, and are fully aware of the "decision mis-steps" made in Peyto strategy..... "excess debt leverage" undertaken to increase production into a period that encountered major constraints in pipelines access, excess production vs. demand, and drastic reduction in AECO and general N.A. gas pricing.
Can NGas pricing fall drastically again ? of course, under a variety of circumstances...but have some fundamental situations changed?... Yes.... Government & producer & pipeline owner involvement in pipeline access discussions, diversification of Peyto product export sales, internal Alberta sales diversification by Peyto, improved constraint on "living-within- one's means" in terms of Cashflow compared to Capital Investment, Debt re-payment and Dividend, ongoing technology improvement relative to production costs, etc...
You have a reasonable perspective on all of this, and therefore what caused me concern in your post was an apparent definitative expressed opinion "2021 capex program that will deliver much lower returns and will bring more Natgas supplies to a fragile market.
I am a long-term investor by general policy, but currently hold a tiny fraction of my peak shares in Peyto, with my last sales at $4.00 which clearly was not very smart on my part back in early February 2021. I anticipate that the fundamentals for Peyto are solid once again, and that gradual re-entry, when technical analysis of Peyto's marketplace sentiment so encourages, could be a very rewarding strategy over the coming two years,
Peace,
Good Decision-making to All,
ElJ