Climate Update Some here may remember Grand Solar Cycle Mini
Climate Set-Up 1) La Nina is weakening as Enso 3.4 has warmed almost to non-La Nina set readings while eons 1+2 remains colder but is also warming.
2) -QBO has started to weaken but will remain negative until the Fall Suppressing the Hurricane Season
3) AMO has been cooling while the TSA and the TNA have also been cooling. This helps suppress the hurricane season and increase drier west African weather risks.
4) The IOD has been becoming more negative which helps dry out west Africa, dry out India and add flooding risk to SE Asia.
5) The GLAAM while negative now is expected to move into El Nio like positive territory by July which will help suppress hurricane activity and improve a cooler wetter finish in the US.
6) The SOI index has seen its first negative El Nino like readings since the La Nina began in the fall of 2020 suggesting the transition away from La Nina has slowly begun.
7) The 11-Year Solar Cycle is Reaching the initial leading edge of the peak phase that sets the bar for the average amplitude for the current solar cycle 25.
It will be similar to solar cycle 24 verifying that a grand solar cycle minimum is well entrenched keeping weather volatility high.
s The above scenario continues to support and overall better weather pattern for the northern hemisphere growing season than last year with a US/EU late June to mid-July hot dry weather scare likely before giving way to a great finish to the crops.
It also means an above normal hurricane season but not as active as the last 2 years and more focused on the mid-Atlantic states. It should support a good Indian monsoon season after a late start and should offer a worsening weather situation in west Africa.