Pilbara Minerals Ord Shs T.PLS

Primary Symbol: PILBF

Metals & Mining Industrial Metals & Minerals

Pilbara Minerals Limited is an Australia-based lithium company. The Company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and mining of minerals in Australia. Its 100% owned Pilgangoora hard-rock lithium operation is located approximately 120 kilometers (kms) from Port Hedland in Western Australia’s resource-rich Pilbara region. The operation consists of two processing plants: the Pilgan Plant, located on the northern side of the Pilgangoora area and produces spodumene and tantalite concentrates, and the Ngungaju Plant is located to the south produces spodumene concentrate. It owns 70% of the Mt Francisco project, which is located 50 km south-west of the Pilgangoora Project and hosts the large occurrence of outcropping pegmatites located nearby to Port Hedland. It is also pursuing a proposed downstream joint venture (JV) for the development of an approximately 43,000 tons per annum lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) lithium chemical conversion facility in South Korea.

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Pilbara Minerals Ord Shs > Forecasting; let's box winter up. best years ahead.

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Post by aggmanon Apr 13, 2016 9:41pm

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Post# 24764587

Forecasting; let's box winter up. best years ahead.

On 1 March, 2016 re. Q1 outlook the company reported

To manage volumes and control costs around planned maintenance at one of our delivery points, Q1 2016 sales volumes are currently expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, versus 718,000 tons in Q1 2015
Our customers will sell through inventories and will need to restock following completion of the planned maintenance, which has been factored into our full year volume outlook

On 13 April, 2016

Q1 2016 SALES VOLUMES

Sales volumes in Q1 2016 were 516,000 tons which was modestly below our expected range of 550,000 to 600,000 tons. As previously disclosed, heavy rain in our key markets, as well as scheduled maintenance at one of our Bay Area delivery points, continued to impact volumes.

Aggs take:

Missed the low end of the range stated 42 days ago and 60 days into the quarter by 6.2% (and the the low end of the range 550,000 tons is 23.4% below the comparable quarter of 718,000).

4 days of rain in February - when they made the Q1 outlook. Granted looks like there were 11 rain days in March (but just 3 greater than 25mm) - and there was a pick up in shipments in March. You could also back out the Los Angeles deliveries and compare SF Bay 2016 Q1 v 2015 Q1, and that makes the aggman weep, and ponder.

I'm probably being over squirrelly regarding a 90-day winter quarter when, rightly maintenance should be planned. However - amgn68 is fair to question forecasting.

And why no pricing discussion or guidance? There have been two business updates, and an earnings release in 102 days - with all the commentary regarding quarterly and annual volumes - but not a sound on pricing.

Striving to be fair: SeattleSlim is correct that with a newly appointed IR officer comes a new communication protocol - so good. What is important is both accurate (volume) and complete (pricing) information.

Have to shout out: SeattleSlim finding that new ready mix concrete plant in Redwood City (permitted for Cemex aggregate supply) is a huge find. I looked at volumes and operating hours and its a significant addition to the the peninsula market.

Conclusion: Let's box winter up and get fired up in both markets - really want to see many big shipments (of the rich margin kind) docking and loading into the Port of Long Beach . Hope springs external, and summer has a long tail in California.

Advice: Makes no little sense to bail Amgn68, Polaris Materials best years (and your upside) are ahead of you, just ahead of you.

Agg