History speaks for its selfI don't follow trends... BUT I do review historical pricing, as the cliche goes... you don't know where you are going if you don't know where you have been...I have said this time and again... PMT is a good spec stock...they have taken their lumps... from investors and from the Gov't ... BUT they have also gotten a few breaks...AND just speaking in general terms it has NOT been an easy row to hoe for many of the companies that converted from trusts... the Trust model was ultimately good for one thing... dishing out cash to investors...the model as many trusts are finding out was NOT good for increasing the inherent value of a company... it was a maintenance model not a growth model...Trusts essentially became the slum lords of Oil and Gas lands... they would put the money that would traditionally go into exploration into purchasing developed assets where there was little or no upside... then portion out operating capital to meet minimum standards so that INVESTORS could continue reaping the benefits of production...as a result... Trust assets (Land) provide little opportunity for organic growth... a key metric according to some "pros" that review and analyse the O&G sector...THAT IS Generally speaking...
PMT could have learned that tossing all their eggs in the NG basket was neither prudent nor smart... BUT they choose to ignore the lesson provided when the Government shut in all that Eastern Alberta gas in favour of Bitumen production... here the gov't told them... OIl (Bitumen) is worth MORE than NG... and what did PMT do? they continued to expand their NG protfolio...
Now folks like Shammy... are STILL flogging the NG horse... contrary to the street's opinion that NG pricing will be flat for the next 5 years... absolutely its got potential...theres the possibility of shipping Liquid NG.. BUT that is getting costlier...a recent article indicated that ONE LNG shipping company is taking offers exceeding $100K/day for a ship that hasn't been built yet... the same article notes that there are only 7 shipyards on the planet capable of building these ships...and a single ship takes 2 years to build...and the world fleet currently stands at 320 ships.. most of which are locked into long term contracts... SO would a company like PMT be in a position to take advantage of overseas markets??? highly unlikely...
Then there IS PMT's OIlsands... a "small" SAGD (10K BOE/D) will run about $400MM... and where does PMT get the staff and expertise when the majority of the professionals and engineering firms.. not to mention manufacturers are already locked into long term contracts and projects that will take more than 10 years...
PMT is IMHO a company waiting to be sold...Maybe $5/share would be fair given the debt... MAYBE a Chinese or Korean white knight steps in to help defer the drilling costs I understand that KNOOC (Harvest) OR maybe even TAQA North (UAE) still have some money in the piggy bank for some "bolt on assets"...
It's MY opinion git yer own...