How Many TimesI've been right so many times now I am losing track while all of you self proclaimed elite here were swooning over each other, bragging about having dinner with a fund manager, and bashing me you should have been listening to me all the way through.
Written Feb 2, 2022,
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.pne&postid=34391795
Re-Post re: dividend Now let's see what the share price does. With inflation at almost 7% and the FED raising rates and a 10yr treasury paying a risk free 3% (today) and PNE (not risk free) paying 5.6% based on today's closing, and not going to do any share buybacks, $1.50/share is also looking prophetic for ~6.6% yield unless they're going to offer special dividends when appropriate as I also worte about before. And it is trading at about $30k/flowing BOE at $1.79 which is most likely all there is in it at this point. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. If I am right you can be sure I will be back to point it out.
Also note, as I have said before, dividends are to be paid out of net profits. They actually ran a profit of ~$15MM in Q1 (x4 = ~60MM/yr) without an impairment reversal for an approximate just over 50% payout....of profits... not "adj. funds flow". If that continues their accumulated deficit will disappear(long ways off) and they will actually have retained earnings on the balance sheet. They also used more cash than they generated but because they paid $10MM in debt which is fine because it was a choice and a good one of course. That cash generated was at avg. $4.88/mcf gas and $108/avg for oil. There's different ways to look at that.
GOOD: they actually made a profit (without an impairment reversal) and were actually cash flow positive
GOOD: financials are actually starting to look like a real business and the accumulated deficit will convert to retained earnings (years away) on the balance sheet so the trend is going in the right direction.
NOT SO GOOD: they needed high gas and oil prices to obtain a net profit of $15MM for $60MM /yr at 108 oil and $4.88gas. Yes, gas is almost double that now but my point is they needed high prices to achieve what I just stated.
As I said before too, I think the odds are high that the dividend will not increase over time (minus potential special dividends) and be careful what you wish for with dividends...they must be real and sustainable. No company wants to cut a dividend after committing to one. We all know (I think we all do...lol) what happens if that occurs.
Bash away in your anger and insecurity that I was bang on if you want (which is weird because I've been prophetic more than once. Did anyone else offer such prohecies??) while I bask away. Lol