Good to see all the amazing analysis Its no fun to agree al the time so even the dumbest, near illiterate commentary is better than nobody showing up at all.
lets see if I can add something worth reading.
1. the debt facility was 56 million. I think I read 70 million somewhere in the posts. It is termed out over three years so no risk to the business - no annual reviews etc. The cash flow from the certus assets, more than pay for the debt payments. Like more than 3x over 3 years, AND we still have the assets.
2. This is an acquisition company, not a drilling company. They have some great land and the ability to drill great wells but it is not their main focus.
3. last year, a poor gas year in most opinions was tied for the second best cash flow year in pne history. Things will be better this year BASED ON THE LIQUIDS CUT ALONE
4. the capex budget for this 26,000 boe/d company is 17.5 million this year. You want to watch a company strip out costs and operate on a razor blade? this is your baby.
5. I own some (my smallest position by far) bought around 135ish. I think I received about 25 cents in dividends with more coming. It's not invidia for performance but it was never expected to be. I am going to add a little more in small bits. Eventually the worm will turn and nat gas will be an awesome place to be invested for many years in a row. I guarantee it will be a surprise when it happens.
6. Yeah they have thousands of wells. But seriously what do you think a coal bed methane well, that will still produce for another 35 years, is going to cost to reclaim? 5 bucks and a pack of gum? ARO doesn't matter. They are addressing it, quietly, consistently and responsibly.
7. gas prices are going to recover faster than expected because industry is addressing it faster than before. For the first time in exactly one forever, we have poor gas prices today that we see can be easily hedged at much higher prices in 7 months or so.
8. Alberta pwer consumption/production is growing by 2700 megawatts this year. All gas fired, adding 500 million cfd of demand.
9. LNG Canada. Keep hearing ahead of sched. Coastal pipeline will want to start line fill before operations get underway. Gas that is being dumped into aeco is going to be redirected to BC.
10. This should probably be first. The DECLINE RATE. It is now about 9%. They don't have to drill a well this year. Haven't planned on it but will be able to pay cash when or if they decide to.
11. As revenue starts surging with better gas prices later this year, expect them To do something intelligent with it. Which is a nice change among nat gas companies. During the brief gas spike in 2022 pne cash flowed 160 million. Since then they have completed two acquisitions for 130 million. Paid 10's of millions in dividends and added a significant liquids component. Expect another deal at a great price. it is why the company exists.