MyHoneyPot wrote: POU just completed its gas plant expansion at Karr (100 mmcf, fully owned) which will essentially add 25% to the plants capacity and the liquids handling will be installed as we speak. How will this project compete going forward compared to the darlings of the industry BIR, CR, and PONY.
Using the companies number and because every company reports differently i just used operating expense, royalities, and transportation to generate the play netbacks. So the field is level for all producers.
100 mmcf Karr Plant and Liquids Handling (Dec 2018) Karr will generate by itself in December this year, will have 170% the net backs of Pony, 85% the netback of BIR, and 272% of the netback of CR.
Based on my projected netbacks and comparing them with the Q2 numbers of these other producers Karr today could be valued at 1.35 billion using a PONY evaluation, 1.7 billion using a BIR evaluation and 1.72 billion using a CR evaluation. I know they are relative number only based on netbacks, and actual Q2 number and todays market caps and debt levels. I believe the Karr asset has better DIRT then all these other companies have so its fair.
In 2020 when the gas plant is complete it would mean that PONY only produces 39% the revenue of Karr, BIR 79% the revenue of Karr and CR 24% the revenue of Karr.
I know your right, things will change and in 2020 KARR will have a twin Sister WAPITI so double all those number will now need to be doubled, and for all the rest of the assets of the company double the number again.
This is the best way i can discribe the potential of POU
| | Q2 | | (Karr Asset) | | Q2 | | Q2 | |
| | PONY | | POU | | Birch | | Crew | |
| | | | (100 mmcf) | | | | | |
| Boe/d | 60116 | | 28836 | | 76297 | | 23583 | |
| Rev Boe | 16.02323 | | 44.48537314 | | 21.69 | | 25.18 | |
| Revenue O+G | 87656 | | 116733 | | 150561 | | 50040 | |
| Royalities | -1477 | | -8738 | | -10623 | | -3927.28 | |
| Operating | -16798 | | -23984 | | -23329 | | -14078.1 | |
| Tranportation | -24020 | Multiplier | -7137 | | -25273 | Multiplier | -3819.97 | Multiplier |
| | | Karr Rev | | | | Kar Rev | | Kar Rev |
| Netback (Millions) | 45361 | 1.7 | 76873 | | 91370.24 | 0.841338 | 28215 | 2.72 |
| Oper Net back Boe | 8.291845 | | 29.29537314 | | 13.16 | | 13.14722 | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| MKT Cap (Millions) | 433 | | Just the | | 1400 | Peferred | 303 | |
| Debt (Millions) | 363.9 | | Value of | | 631 | Shares | 329 | |
| | | | Karr | | | Included | | |
| Enterprise Value | 796.9 | | | | 2031.0 | | 632.0 | |
| Karr Eval -2018 (100 mmcf) | 1350.5 | | | | 1708.8 | | 1721.9 | |
| Karr - 2020 (150 mmcf) | 2025.8 | | | | 2563.1 | | 2582.9 | |
| Karr -2020 Netback | 39.34% | | 115310 | | 79.24% | | 24.47% | |
Subject to fat finger errors of the author.
IMHO