RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:mhpuncutgems wrote: ooops you did it again..
you said that 45% of POU total production is categorized as "oil". but you didn't think it through again did you?
14% of POU liquids are Neither OIL or Condensate. They are classified as "other NGLs".... And you have to admit that those other NGLs aren't going to get the oil price are they?
do you want to redo your forecast with this new data and CORRECT share count, or no?
Robertboblaw wrote: uncutgems wrote: i don't believe you know what FCF even is...and how it's calculated. has nothing to do with share float...
Did I say share float has anything to do with free cash flow dumb@ss?? Here, I'll explain it to you another way, but simpler since you clearly are new to this investing thing and don't have two marbles to scratch together....POU $400mm free cash flow in 2022 (*projected based on current year fcf thus far: no underwater hedges, 80k boes, 45% oil, $80 oil) against 120mm shares = $3.25 in fcf PER SHARE (since you clearly don't understand this concept) TOU $1.4b projected fcf (I believe i saw a recent analyst protection for Tou in the $1.5b ball park) against 300mm shares = $4.65 fcf per share. Yes, TOU will in all likeliness produce more fcf next year PER SHARE than POU (are you getting this PER SHARE concept yet??) but POU will be right there behind them... Man, ppl like you should stay off the internet altogether seriously. I don't usually engage in this type of stuff, but you're insights into the investing/finance world are laughably bad...ignore list
Just for $hits and gigs let's humor you...That guidance they posted used a WTI avg price of $60. Notice I used a higher price of $80 in mine? You can read, am I right in assuming that? Q1 POU produced ~30k Boes of oil and condy combined. So what is 30k boes of oil/condy P/D with an extra $20 per bbl tacked on? Can you figure that one out yourself? Probably not... The current SHARE FLOAT is ~134mm with an NCIB of ~7mm shares brings it down to ~127mm. perhaps I was generous on bringing it down to 120mm. So fine, you got me there....let's use a 127mm SHARE FLOAT. Going back to their fcf guidance, I'm well within the ball park of $400mm in fcf using $80 WTI (by my calc I got to ~$385mm). On a per share basis the "new" number ($385mm over 127mm shares) is ~$3 per share in fcf next year. I said $3.65. Not much off right? TOU will generate more fcf per share. This is known. But how far behind is $3 fcf per share from $4.65? What about POU being debt free next year? Are you maybe a bit jealous of that?? When will TOU be debt free? Might have to wait a while for that, eh? Aw shucks. Seriously how did you not get added to my ignore list? Keep commenting though anyways. I have to admit it's true what they say; it's kinda fun "feeding the trolls".