Probe v Troilusfrom Troilus board:
Just using the TMX website numbers, Probe has 166.7 million shares out for a market cap of $216 million at $1.30 per share.
Counting Troilus' RSUs there are 285 million out - not counting warrants.At 58 cents that gives you a market cap of $165 million.
There is no way Probe should be worth $50 million more than Troilus.
Probe just released an updated Prelim. Economic Assessment. They did one in 2021 where capex was C$353 and sustaining capex of C$602 million. The new numbers are capex of C$602 million and sustaining capex of C$818 million over a 12.5 year mine life.
Over the mine life, Probe will produce 2.1 million oz from open pit and 1.1 million oz underground for 3.2 million ounces. Annual production will average 255,000 ounces with a milling rate of 15,500 tonnes/day and a mill head grade of 1.3 g/t.
That capex increase from 2021 is a killer. Things could change on that front because everyone in their Val D'Or district talks and talks and talks about using underutilized milling capacity (Agnico). So far, Agnico seems open to the idea of contract milling for these small fry, but absolutely uninterested in giving any of these minnows any help with raising equity. Maybe next bull market things will change.
Meanwhile, Troilus is about 2 or 3 years further along the Lassonde curve. Capex payback is (hopefully) in the vicinity of 2 and-a-bit years versus 4 years for Probe. Troilus should be worth a $50 million premium to Probe, not a discount.
I will refrain from commenting why this is so. You're welcome.