RE:RE:WBJV - September Start-Up
"Bigsee , where do see the SP a year from now if the mine is operational this fall ?"
Assuming the "fully funded" WBJV turn out to be true, I think that share price will be more dependent on PGM prices than anything else. WBJV's ability to be profitable and generated a quality cash flow stream sufficient to fund some of Waterberg's needs is largely dependent on where platinum price goes from here. If Pt continues to drift down, to below $1100, I'm not so optimistic.
Whether palladium prices surge or fall, also plays a role in generating interest in Waterberg and giving PTM more negotiating power with potential partners. The main reason why share price is as low as it is today, was the lack of investment interest generated by falling Pt prices and the corresponding pessimistic global recovery outlook.
The big three's SA miners can't continue to invest much in their Rustinberg shafts, with platinum at this price. But the big question is how long will that take for this to translate into a market supportive shift in fundamentals.
I'm still hopeful about PTM. There are factors that influence share price that I am not in a position to be able to project. I've run into trouble in the past thinking I could project the SA strike's related impact on PGM prices by analyzing market fundamentals, at a fairly detailed level. That didn't pan out as well I hoped it would. So, I now look at it more like a levered bet, which could go either way depending on if/when :
a) Europe and China's economies pick up;
b) Rustenberg shaft shut down;
c) Eskom runs into major power difficulties this winter (which starts next month);
d) Russia buy up (or sells off) Pd;
and also important,
e) PTM meeting their latest on time / on budget start-up goals;
and it also wouldn't hurt to see,
f) A surprisingly rich intercept discovered in Waterberg II or III.