Post by
Whampoa on Nov 23, 2020 2:36pm
Brent US$46
Now @ NY Oil settlement, Brent was US$46.00
Surpassed last night's Brent evening session high.
I believe this is also above August 2020 spot high for that month.
For reference PXT @ $17.2 still far from last August $18 - $19 range.
Comment by
Kramerkarma on Nov 25, 2020 1:59am
Based off q3 earnings and 2021 plan . 119M shares and minus capex parex is worth 28$ at a 10x fcf multiple after capex . Now if they resumed 54k barrels forn365 days @ 119 shares at 60$ and capex was 240M$ they'd be worth 38$ . Based off 10x FCF earnings after growth capex. No +3$ for cash in bank. Amazing opportunity.
Comment by
Kramerkarma on Nov 25, 2020 2:05am
and say oil hits 80$ in 2022 and shares are 108M and capex 280M USD and production 54k. 73$ cad per share. Thats about 45$ US profit per barrel before capex. 1.3 exchange.
Comment by
AForce on Nov 26, 2020 12:53am
With oil at $80 there is no way the exchange rate will be 1.3 but who knows what happens to the USD in 1-2 years
Comment by
Kramerkarma on Nov 26, 2020 11:21am
your probably correct. That would help demand . But raise production costs a little. And ncib costs a little. I can use 1.18fx.
Comment by
Kramerkarma on Nov 26, 2020 11:26am
so at 43$/boe profit at 80$ (upped pumping costs by 2$usd) and kept capex 280M usd. FX @ 1.18 = FCF after capex of 6.20 CAD @ 108 million shares. In 2022. Or you can calculate shares and fx at 567.5million USD FCF after capex.