Pyrogenesis Canada Inc T.PYR

RE:Evolution of "Client A"

[ArnoldLayne]

Excellent post ! Thanxs for sharing this. I believe we will gap up to your 40ish$/share the day of that news release. You sure wanna be invest BEFORE that gap up :)

Aarman4 wrote: Hello everyone!

First of all, forgive my spelling and technical ignorance on the computer, these things do not always turn out the way I would like, or as pretty as I hoped when I began.....

This is a repost to start the week, less than 16 minutes until the paid bashing crew show up!

Second of all, please educate yourself on Pyrogenesis. If you do, it will allow you to make an informed decision on if their current share price is worthy of your investment or not. This report is only meant to show you my headspace, and provide a grounds for you all to do your own due diligence.

Everything following this point is based upon research gleaned from news reelases, alrthough my price projection also takes some of my 'educated guesses' into account...The report is based solely around what is known, and what I believe is now minimally accurate in regards to Iron Ore Pelletization "Client A".....I do not discuss potential income from the following: Client B, Client C, Tunneling, or anything else that I do not have 99% probability of success in my mind.(even if they may be above 90% in my mind)

I wanted to take some time to demonstrate my updated conservative price projection of Pyrogenesis, and why I believe that there is an ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITY to purchase Pyrogensis shares and increase your net worth going forward by holding them for a year(ideally we never sell).

I have (hopefully) attached a share price projection that I believe to have a 99% chance of coming true, within a timeline of 1-12 months. I have also provided links, along with highlights from those links, that show the evolution of the contract that "Client A" and Pyrogenesis are currently finalizing. I will provide my reasoning for Client A projected revenues as well.

Before reading my projection, it is my hope that you will look at the attached links, and follow all of them, read them thoroughly, and truly become as knowledgable about this subject as you can.


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The timeline for "Client A" begins on March 4th, 2020. After a successful Site Acceptance Test, and validation of Pyrogensis' plasma torch technology at RISE Energy Technology Center AB in Sweden. "Client A" obtained a 'modelling contract' with Pyrogenesis. Modelling contracts are in place to demonstrate the positive effects, and identify if there will be negative effects, of having the plasma torches installed in the client's iron ore pelletizaion furnaces.


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March 4th, 2020 News Release

Client A obtained, first phase modelling begins - March 4th

".......As a result of this success, PyroGenesis has received numerous requests for proposals from potential clients in the field, and recently signed a small order from a multi-billion-dollar international producer of iron pellets. This order is to model and evaluate the performance of PyroGenesis’ torch in an existing industrial furnace. If successful, this would potentially lead to a multi-torch order aimed at replacing burners in their industrial pelletizing plant. An iron pelletizing furnace typically uses dozens of high-power burners (typically between 1-5 MW)......"
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Pyrogenesis completes the first phase of Torch modelling with "Client A", and it is revealed that "Client A" has approximately 500 torches to order, at up to $3million per torch.

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April 30, 2020 News Release

Client A completion of first phase, updated size of potential order,, and torch revenue numbers - April 30

"...it has successfully completed the first phase (the “First Phase”) of a multi-phase modeling contract...."

"...The Client has over 10 plants, each requiring approx. 50 torches. Each torch will generate up to $3M of revenue to PyroGenesis. The subsequent modelling phases will further quantify the benefits of transitioning to plasma...."
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Fast-forward to May 19th, 2020, and it is announced that "Client A" and Pyrogenesis are now in final negotiations for equipment supply. It is also reiterated that the client will require approximately 500 torches in total or more, for it's ten or more plants.

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May 19, 2020 News Release

Client A accepts modelling proceeds to negotiations for equipment supply - May 19th

"...further to its press releases dated March 4 th and April 30th , 2020, it has now entered into the final stages of negotiation for equipment supply with the major iron ore pelletization client (the “Client”) previously disclosed. The Client is a multi-billion-dollar international producer of iron ore pellets, one of the largest in the industry, whose name will remain confidential for competitive reasons. The Client has over 10 plants each requiring approx. 50 plasma torches...."
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On June 22, 2020, Agoracom.com poster Hilbertk questioned Pyrogenesis CEO Peter Pascali if the torch revenue of $3mil was in US or CDN dollars, to which Mr. Pascali hints on June 27th, 2020, on Agoracom.com, that it could be US dollars.

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June 27, 2020 Agoracome response

".....Mr. Pascali, 

Are you able to advise if the induration torch revenue (~3 mil) was in USD or CAD. 

Thank you and have a great week. 

Sincerely, 

HK ....."

"......Dear Hilbertk,

 

I am comfortable confirming that it could be USD.

 

Hope that helps,

 

Peter......."
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On July 2, 2020, Pyrogenesis updates on Client A(among others), and reports that they have agreed to extend modelling for another six weeks, and that equipment purchase discussions should conclude at the end of August, 2020. They also report that the ultimate goal is to remove GHG from ALL of "Client A's" plants.

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July 2, 2020 News Release

Client A extension of further phases...Client update - July 2

"......The subsequent phases were to be completed by June 30th, 2020 and were geared to further quantify the benefits of transitioning to plasma torches. These phases have been extended for up to six weeks with this additional data being incorporated into an ideal plasma torch configuration for this client. Equipment purchase discussions are expected to be completed by the end of August, and incorporate the ideal plasma torch configuration identified during the modelling process, with the ultimate goal being to eliminate GHG emissions from all their plants......."
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With Pyrogenesis share price abruptly lower than usual, the CEO of Pyrogensis decided to reassure investors in a news release that there is no relation between the share price movements and what was actually happening with Pyrogenesis, in particular with it's contract talks.

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August 24, 2020 News Release

Client A reassurance of progress despite share price - August 24

".....“To the contrary, all of our projects are moving ahead and are closer to completion than before. The potential contracts previously announced are not in jeopardy and are moving ahead....."
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On September 1, 2020, it is announced that the modelling phase is completed, accepted, and that an equipment purchase offer has been made from "Client A" to Pyrogenesis. The major items are in agreeance, but there are still details to finalize. While the end of this is not schedulable, it is stated that it could conclude at any time.

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September 1, 2020 News Release

Client A completion and acceptance of modelling contract in it's entirety, submission from client A to PYR of draft contract, and agreement on major items.

"....... PyroGenesis is also pleased to confirm receipt of a draft equipment purchase contract (the “Contract”) from Client A....."

"......The Company also confirms having received a Contract which essentially highlights the terms and conditions negotiated to date. Although the major terms and conditions contained therein have been agreed to in principle, there are still several elements that need further review......."
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Wow, what a great story right!!???

Anyways, from all of this, I am comfortable in believing the following is true:

1. "Client A" will be signing an equipment purchase contract with Pyrogenesis.
2. The contract will have 500 torches minimally.
3. The per torch price will be between $1mil and $3mil.
4. The per torch price is in US dollars.

The price of the RISE torch was $1mil, and it was 900kw. All of the torches are expected to be between 1mw and 3mw...... It seems to me that price is likely about $1mil/MegaWatt rating.

Because it was stated that the torch order will be for torches in the 1-3 MegaWatt range, I am comfortable averaging out at 2MW per torch over 500 torches, and concluding that the cost per torch will average at $2mil/torch.

The margin per torch is unknown. With the patents for plasma torches in induration furnaces considered to be locked up completely, an appropriate guess is that margins are minimally 67%. Because I am conservative, I am going to base projections at 50%.


I am comfortable projecting a 12-month high for Pyrogenesis between $43.92 and $300+.

The $43.92 is based upon known incomes, as well as my projected Client A contract of $1.3bil CDN at 50% margin.

The $300+ is based upon a high likelyhood of other incomes in the same time period from Clients B and C, as well as the potential for other incomes from tunneling client and HPQ Nano revenues, and of course a likely correction in me being LOW on my Client A revenues and margins.



So without further ado, I present to you my current Pyrogenesis share price projection for September 5, 2020 to September 5, 2021.


Cheers!