Quarterhill Inc T.QTRH

WiLAN Signs Wireless License with Motorola

[ngtraderng]

Wow, congratulaions to v_guerriero, mrmoribund, cabbiejbj, and all the others on this board. You guys have been very accurate with your insights and predictions for QTRH developments.

[v_guerriero]

It is a team effort. Back  to $100M+ war chest.  This should be 3.50+ alone signing the 3rd largest Handset maker. Big Q3 numbers, enables another ETC-like acquisition.   When Apple signs this is 5-6+.  Double your money.   Giddy up!

[whaler83]

Oh he'll yeah. v_g threw everyone a bone...hope lots of us took advantage of it. I know I did. Thanks again bud

[Justhalffull]

In 2017 when they signed the Samsung deal, three days after they gave an earnings update as the amount was material.  Guess we should expect the same in this case if the amount is significant.

[v_guerriero]

This three-inch man spewing  more nonsense trying to buy in low as he failed to do so.  And tried to discourage others to follow my advice. Samsung was announced on a Friday.  The quarterly preview was followed up the next Monday.  ONE business day after.  Not three as he reported here  Remember that there were a couple of agreements signed early on in this quarter

[Justhalffull]

I said 3 days Venereal G.   Where I come from, Friday to Monday is 3 days.  Nothing stops them from making an announcement on Saturday or Sunday. What I said in my post was in no way discouraging anyone from anything.  I simply said they would have to announce if it is material.  And your projection of $100M in the war chest would make it material.  And oh, by the way

[ChiChi3]

Justhalful, they announced the deal so that means its material.  And they don`t give revenue or profitability guidance so they don`t have to also  provide further guidance.  Also, as the press release stated, all terms are confidential so releasing revenue guidance now could violate their agreement with Motorola. They might still do so, but if they don`t, i wouldn`t take that as an

[Justhalffull]

ChiChi   you are incorrect.  Just because they made an announcement does not make it material.  They announce almost all signings, whether licensing or contracts.  Most are for small amounts, so do not have a material impact on their finances.  They made an early update to the financials in 2017 because the Samsung deal was for a significant dollar amount.  They

[Justhalffull]

And if the amount is Material, and I don't know if it is or is not, insiders of Quarterhill are prohibited from trading the stock until it is disclosed. I suspect it likely is material, and we will likely have an announcement in the next little while.  But we shall see.

[cabbieJBJ]

1/2full, the blackout policy for insiders is that they cannot buy from 2 weeks before the end on a quarter and the release of quarterly results. Additional backouts apply where insiders possess material information. The policy is on the website.

[whaler83]

Lol...uts not like they are tripping over each other to buy shares anyway

[Justhalffull]

I am fully aware of the insider trading rules.  I was subject to them for many years.  And the reason the policy is on the website is because that too is a requirement of the TSX Material information rules. " Rule VII Law Every listed company should have a firm rule prohibiting those who have access to confidential information from making use of such information in trading in

[v_guerriero]

Not spoken like someone that bought at 2.70. the shorts will burn today!

[Justhalffull]

And just why is it not spoker like someone who bought at $2.70 venereal?  Or is your comprehension skill lacking.

[cabbieJBJ]

Sorry you missed out 1/2full.  You would not be crying so loudly if you bought at $2.70.  Just saying.

[Justhalffull]

Who is crying.  I'm simply point out that we do not yet know how much the settlement is for.  And the fact that the sp is up only a dime reflects that.  I'm hoping to hear an announcement that the settlement was for $40 or $50 million.  Then we will see some significant sp increase.  If they don't make an announcement, then I think the sp remains below $3.00

[cabbieJBJ]

1/2 full, the day befor v_g posted the joint Wilan/Motorola motion to stay, the share price was ~$2.65.  So it's now mid $2.80s.  But you knew that.  You're trying to manipulate, plain and simple.  I just don't know what your SN refers to: half full brain or half full honesty. You statement that you'll leave if the price is <$3.00 leaves me

[Justhalffull]

You, like venereal disease, either can't read, or cannot comprehend.  I did not say I would leave if the stock was under $3.00 I said if their was no material change release by Monday, I thought the shares would remain below $3.00 I would sell the stock I purchased earlier. I will still be around.  I have owned this thing for over 10 years.  I once owned much more, but sold a

[cabbieJBJ]

So you won't leave...you are expelled from my world.  Adios.

[Justhalffull]

I'll do the same so I won't have to listen to your useless drivel.  adios

[v_guerriero]

Done as well Cabbie.  No more tiny members in my view.  Ha! I encourage you all to do the same.  

[astutein]

v-g- I agree with you the market currently has no conception of our value. I believe I am correct in stating different possible outcome of our Apple case.  Please correct my figures and facts accordingly if you do not agree with my win calculations. The market and legal posts have reported that Apple in CAFC re 109 million 2 case award. In post trial Judge and parties Wilan and Apple

[v_guerriero]

Todd has his target at $6 if we win the 2nd jury verdict.  You get to $7.50-$8.00 if the original verdict is reinstated. My guess is that we see a pre-announcement of q3 results.  Not a single analyst commented today.  They are too lazy to do the work that cabbie and I had done estimating the Motorola contract.  Until QTRH tells them what to plug into their models

[whaler83]

Here's my best guess at the motorola license. Motorola accounts for maybe 3% of market share. Assuming Apple accounts for 25% market share (a quick Google check) with a $380M license (what we are going in our best case scenario) puts the total market at about $1.5B 3% of $1.5B is $45.6M. That's at the high end. Very basic quick calculation.

[whaler83]

Since this is a settlement I assume lower

[cabbieJBJ]

...and Motorola's market share is 4% (from a couple of sources), making your $45M a pretty good guess Whaler.

[cabbieJBJ]

...and furthermore, the stock price is up $0.15 to $0.20 since the motion to stay, yielding an implied value of the license at $20M +/-. So, if the deal is worth $45M, there is at least another 20 cents to be realized in the stock price.

[astutein]

Cabbie I can supply some figures which would indicte the deal is worth 45 million or so From the  actual court document on infringement Wilan is alleging wilfull infringement since May 11 2016. Therefore it 60 months from May 11 2016. Motorola has been quoted sales figures on handsets for the past 5 years of 70 million units. At 60 cents per unit this would equal 42 million

[cabbieJBJ]

Astutein, $40-$50M is my number. I've come at this in a couple of ways in prior posts. Your number based on 70M units sounds reasonable. No need to go this deep into the weeds Suffice to say that the market's implied value of $20M is waaay low.

[v_guerriero]

If they pre announce they have that plus PSMC and the auto company.   A pre announce would be 65-75 in revenue and 50-55M EBITDA including IRD and one month of ETC.

[cabbieJBJ]

While a pre-announcement would be very nice, I would be very surprised if there is one. I am prepared to be wowed tho.

[wilander]

There is no way Apple comes this far without seeing how the oral arguments go and the tone of the judges before choosing to settle or not. But id be happy to be proven wrong . But its Apple so...

[cabbieJBJ]

Wilander, if there is any truth to the possibility floated earlier in the week that QCOM may be involved in the background, there could be leverage to get a deal done next week. Wilan's leverage is that once the case goes to oral arguments there are no deals. The Intel and non adjudicated products could be carved out of an agreement and handled separately, possibly by binding arbitration. It

[v_guerriero]

No one saw Motorola coming.   There are also many other possible wireless licensees that have not signed up to the 4G portfolio.   Just go back to the 2010-2013 days and see who could sign a license + any of the Asian handset makers that more recently entered the US.  None of these are in litigation, which could all be a sign that they agreed to not fight it out in court but see

[cabbieJBJ]

Micron in conjuntion with Unified Patents are still fighting it out at the PTAB and CAFC.  Wilan v. Unified is onthe November CAFC schedule.

[wilander]

Yes cabbie. Anything is possible. But its Apple, with a trillion billion million dollar war chest LOL. So there is that. :p

[cabbieJBJ]

Probably Wilander, but you had best be locked and loaded just in case.  It would be a mistake to say there will be 2 months after the oral hearing to lock in. :p back at you.

[wilander]

Completely agree. Just pointing out the likelyhood is small as some seem to think it's likely and will likely be disappointed short term . God knows I've been down the "they are gonna settle" road too many times. Lol. Apple is a breed into it's own. (Thank God.)

[mrmoribund]

Hey guys, I don't understand what would be the source or nature of QCOM's involvement in this.  ??

[cabbieJBJ]

mrmoribund, seems you have not been following the bouncing ball.  LOL.  v_g had a psychic epiphany.  It's not so far out that it is unbelievable, as QCOM has been know to have partially underwritten settlement in the past.  Both Motorola and Apple use QCOM chips.

[v_guerriero]

It can't be too low.   As WiLan would run the risk that if the CAFC sent it back for retrial (very unlikely) a low settlement would be used against WiLan on the Apple retrial.   A low settlement agreement MUST include Apple because of that fact.   Let's see if there is a settlement right before the court hearing.  Those have happened in the past.  

[cabbieJBJ]

Oral hearing is still on the CAFC schedule for next Friday. I check it daily as well as the case docket and will share if I see anything.

[astutein]

vg     My Post of 33953692 of today shows I value of $ 6.15 after  scenario 2 calculations of mine. Todd"s Target is $6.00 vs mine of $ 6.15 which I itimized how I got   my calculation. Any further comments re calculation and estimates used.   Even scenario 1 of mine takes us to $5.00  range. Thanks again for Motorola posting.

[onlygame]

" Todd has his target at $6 if we win the 2nd jury verdict.  You get to $7.50-$8.00 if the original verdict is reinstated. " Which begs the question. Why was CIBC so much a contributor to the selling today if Todd is so bullish. He must be advising his clients AND their trading portal must have positive reports on the situation TO BUY QTRH. Especially with a lot of juicy

[Justhalffull]

Guess you

[ChiChi3]

They can announce anything they want Justhalful, whether its for a settlement of $100 or $100 million...and yes they have announced immaterial signings in the past, you are correct.  They have also signed very large signings in the past without providing financial guidance.  I`m just saying that they have fulfilled their duty to announce to the public the Motorola deal, regardless of the

[Justhalffull]

You tell me just ONE large settlement they have made where they did not make an announcement that it would make a material impact on their finances. JUST ONE

[wilander]

Lol. Chill guys. If they need to make a material announcement they will. No matter what we know it's a great deal and bodes well for Apple. Enjoy the news. It's all going to payoff sooner than later.

[ChiChi3]

You`ve got to be kidding Justhalful.  They've probably had more than 10 signings in the $5+ million range over the last 10 years which I would arguably call 'material' and didn't elicit a press release but I wouldn't know for sure because they are grouped with other signings when they announce quarterly results.  Put another way, are YOU saying the Samsung deal is

[cabbieJBJ]

1/2full, on the last conference call, QTRH said that the wilan business would be inane with historical levels, excluding consideration of an Apple license. That call is public dissemination of guidance...just not on a quarterly basis. For anyone who knows the IP licensing business, an obsession with quarterly results is counterproductive. Personally I would like to see an annual guidance on the

[Justhalffull]

Yes, they said in line with historical levels, that is what they said.  And if this settlement is for, lets say for argument sake, $40,000,000. Then the results would NOT be in line with historical levels, therefore material.  In that case, they would have to issue an update.

[cabbieJBJ]

1/2full, they said licensing revenue on an annual basis, ~$65M for the year, excluding Apple.  H1 licensing revenues were $9.6M, leaving ~$55M for H2 to reach the ~$65M objective for fiscal 2021.  That would place Motorola at ~$50M as many have posted on this board.

[v_guerriero]

Well then your back did a great disservice to anyone that was considering buying.   You cost them an opportunity.  If we could incite a public spanking right now, you would be first in line. The one difference between you and I is I tell people in advance.  You make money by predicting what WILL happen.  Those that follow my lead will get rich.  

[whaler83]

I don't expect the dollar value to cause an earnings update but this bodes well for our Apple case.

[v_guerriero]

I disagree.  Even at the low end of the licensing rate this is a $50M+ USD license.   You are correct that this bodes well for Apple.  Motorola will be getting a rebate from Qualcomm.  I anticipate the same deal structure for Apple.   Even if this goes to CAFC, you should be confident of our chances are better than 0% currently priced into the stock.  The third

[wilander]

Anyone who has ever owned this company knows the patents have always been undervalued and misunderstood. We have all screamed about it for years. VG is just the latest in a long line of us to pick up the charge. It's just the way it is. Until we get Apple, we won't get the eyes we deserve. Good news is its finally getting close to striking midnight.

[ChiChi3]

Completely agree V-G!  I`d also add that we know, from the Apple court documents, that WiLan can`t just accept any agreement.  It HAS to be at the same level of the Samsung deal or better or it would invoke the Samsung ``most favoured`` clause.  So this  is no small settlement as V-G has alluded to.  There`s also the outside chance that Motorola has taken a license over

[SixMileLake777]

Thank you V_g.  Of course WIN but your research is tremendous. Skid

[Socrates1]

Over anticipating the pop? $3.50   I wish that believe me but unless the accumulations are done, you're not gonna see that? BID 2.84 Remember no $$$$$ mentioned? I'll take 3.15 for now! Even that is a stretch! As big as this is to us, its just us. HOPE I AM WRONG!