RE: To bfw and other scientific investorsInteresting conversation. My broker gets to preserve the winnings I make speculating. His job is to make me 20% on the 70% or 80% of the winnings I give him. He knows commodities and cyclicals and blue chips and hedges and all sorts of neat stuff. What he doesn't know is how to make a 5 or 10 bagger. At least, if he does know, he won't tell me about it, not without dosing up on more liability insurance. But then, If he knew he wouldn't have to work anymore, would he?
When I ask (tell) him to buy something he occasionally says something like, let me check the balance sheet, financials, whatever the hell those are. If there was a balance to put on a sheet then I'd have already missed the 10 bagger.
Scientific investor! Nonsense! It's having the discipline to ignore wishful thinking, faith and personal bias, and implement sound research and thinking. The biggest problem most people have is the inability to read and understand what they're reading and to extrapolate meaning from the information.
What do I have to learn in order to understand this?
What is true?
What is false?
What is hyperbole?
Where is there no wiggle room in their story?
Where is the wiggle room?
How can I close up the wiggle room?
Do their press releases intentionally try to deceive, to put lipstick on a praying mantis?
What are the tests to prove truths?
What are the tests to prove falsehoods?
What don't I know?
What questions can I ask them so that they will unintentionally confirm or deny something without knowing they did it?
What would that mean?
What answers must I anticipate?
What are my followup questions for all possible answers?
Why did they say something that way and not some other way?
What didn't they say?
What are they doing that some other fool has already failed at?
What will be "The Market" opinion?
What will market stupidity do?
When will they do it?
Who runs the story?
Are they good, as in capable?
Are they good, as in moral?
Are they good, as in promotion?
And does it smell good or not?
It's not perfect but it sure is fun, except for the 360 days each year when nothing happens! But, oh, those other 5 days!!!!