Post by
Dibah420 on Feb 24, 2022 9:46am
Q1
At a cursory look, looks good to me. Release came unfortunately simultaneous with the launch of a war in E. Europe. In early morning panic RY was trading down 4.5% in NY. By next week things should get back to some modicum of normal.
I suspect VP will call a cease fire by the end of the weekend by which time he'll have grabbed a good chunk of Ukraine. He's not interested in occupying the whole country. VZ will either cry uncle or make up with him behind the scene. All these threats of severe sanctions from JB, BJ, EM will be painful for a while but you can be sure are careffully calculated in Moscow. Heck, even Saddam thrived under sanctions for a very long time. Wars are not won without soldiers on the ground.
Comment by
wasitreallyok on Feb 24, 2022 10:54am
Mean while the dividends are still being paid, and RY can be buying back a pile of shares at the lower prices. Sanctions work if everyone holds their line, but with most you have countries working out the backdoor such as what happened with the chinese telecom whose VP was being held in Canada until there was a swap to settle the matter.
Comment by
ckwong on Feb 27, 2022 3:32pm
I think the SWIFT sanction will be called off by West Europe if not American. West Europe has 40% of their natural gas from Russia. If they don't pay, Russia turns off the tap. American is importing copper from Russia. Cannot buy Russian copper means higher copper price, means higher inflation. If Fed raise the rate that cannot lower the copper price, it can cause hyper-inflation quickly.