RealityI think its pretty simple. Nothing has changed. Its a producer that can only make money at higher nickel (and cobalt prices). It is a lowest quartile cost producer ONLY when the price of cobalt is decent. At the risk of being misinterpreted (once again) I repeat that the cash flow is highly torqued to those higher commodity prices. On the downside we've already seen that the bondholders are in a structurally subordinate position to the equity holders and so were we to get into a prolonged depressed price for the underlying commodities you could expect something similar to what we've seen before.
As for me, I'm out of the bonds for signifcant gains and have been for a while, I'm also out of my trading position in the stock (at a loss) and have been since August because other more promising short term trading opportunities presented themselves. I maintain my core investment position on which I am profitable even at these stinky prices albeit not as profitable as I was. I'll ramp up my trading position again opportunistically when I think the time is right.
George Soros used to say that when you were bullish on a commodity you should buy the low cost producer and the swing cost producer. Sherritt is some weird combination of the two depending upon the price of cobalt and with a sort of unusual feature of the equity on survivorability in a bad environment given this strange situation with the relationship between the bonds and the equity as evidenced by the previous reorganization.