RE:RE:Analysts are sleeping againHe seems to have used the funds from his asset sale in the previous qtr. If it is a $45 mln aquisition I guess he would have paid 60,000 per flowing bbl back then. So excluding a few dollars for a plant and land maybe 400-600 bbls/d and might come with these aquisitions given he sold 400 in the last sale.
In my qtrly model I tried $48 WTI for Q1 qnd Q2 to see what the damage would be. I assumed spending $24 mln cap ex and $16.5 on divy ends.. whoops I mean dividends which ends up with $4 mln free cash flow Q1and $5 mln Q2. Not a lot but given the token cap ex it is still free cash flow. Using $58 WTI for Q1 Q2 2015 provides $27 mln free cash flow and closer to the 65% payout each qtr. Also closer to his $33 mln debt reduction he mentioned I recall.
Next year Q1 2016, if WTI is $60 and they spend/drilling $18 mln in the qtr, then cash flow is -$5.5 mln without any hedges. They really need $65 WTI next year all year and debt will decline $12 mnl and payout around 92%. Production declines to 19,443 boes/d (-7) by year end under that scenario which is pretty understandable.
He should be able to muddle his way through should this occur and he may always sell a non core. Not sure though about covenants and the maximun debt to ebitda he is restricted to. Have not looked at that ...yet.
If you want to play the market on the upside this one will have the hedges off and a divy and should rally nicely in the event oil prices recover somewhat. But they really need $65 oil to be able to stablize in 2016 without hedges and anything higher allows for more meaningful debt reduction.
I see why some wish to play CPG for the high yield and strong balance sheet or WCP for a slightly lower yield and solid balance and a more relaxed state of mind.Those shoudd show production growth given their ability to lever the balance sheet a little more. But once we beleive oil has turned the corner,and assuming it happens within the next six months,then the Surge should surge and probably has more upside if you start to believe in oil.
I have been mucking around the three. Sold most of my CPG higher up and then Surge higher up (this one at a loss) and bought CPG lower down again and sold higher up now and not sure what to do..?? Maybe buy WCP and wait and relax a bit.