Surge Energy Inc (Alberta) T.SGY

Investing for Idiots - At $80 SGY Net Asset Value $24 share

[fortunefavorsus]

At $85 oil FCF 175 million.  At $105 probably over $250 million.  Will be down to .5 debt to cash flow before year end and about a 6% dividend and buying back stock.  Might be able to monetize some noncore assets at these high oil prices.  Could we see a special dividend?.

[Binkie]

I get 266million in FCF at 105 oil or $3.16:share. This would imply a share value of a bit over $23 at 5xFFO. If they paid out 1/2 of FCF to dividends, that would be just under $2/share or a 8.5% yield. I'm not expecting any of that, but even using 70% of that is exciting. $16/share and $1.4 dividend. All in favour say...

[stocks123ST]

Binkie Just as a matter of interest, What's the difference between the price of SGY now and the price from a 10y chart??? -same management -same enviroment -same price -i would say, leverage now is even less than 10y ago -no ESGers to push the price of oil up: because of scarcity -probably less s/o: thanks to the share consolidation -probably paid a dividend then and hopefully start to pay one

[Binkie]

I'm no company historian stocks123st so I'm not in a position to answer your questions. I've only held a position for a few months and my due diligence was based on last years information plus this years plans and guidance. I modeled projections on various commodity prices and standard industry valuation metrics and saw Surge as having significant upside. For example at $75 wti, they