Post by
stocks123ST on Nov 04, 2021 8:00am
I just keep shacking my head...
If my math is correct, with the company bragging about producing over 20k boepd, that means
that every day, because of the hedge, it translates to over $200,000 of missed profit , x taxes...
I didn't realize that forgoing that much money was such a minor thing for a company of sgy's size!!!
Someone is dumping a lot of stock... That's why the stock price in not $7 + and of course the hedge.
I guess who ever is dumping and they are dumping by hitting the bid, they don't seem to want to drink the company's Kool Aid...
Any extra cash should be used for share buybacks when an opportunity araises. A good formula is
when the stocks goes back to its 100 or 200 dma on a weekly chart.
Yes that means that the price of oil has probably gone down and /or the market is having a correction, but the price of oil may go down for a couple of months and back up. Hedging, you are forgoing $10 / b for 6-12 months...
The debt can be lessened to a more prudent amount when the price of oil goes above $100.
The goal is to not to be to leveraged at the top so that you can keep up the dividend when times turn sour, like a recession.
For now, we are in a bull market and we shall be in a bull market for at least 2 more years.
So for now, reduce the s/o and then start to pay a dividend and as the price of oil is on its way to $200/b, then you can direct more of the revenue towards paying off a sizable protion of the debt.
Buying back stock preferably at a lower price if the time comes, will make a huge difference in terms of eps at $200 oil.
Of course oil will not stay at $200. But just imagine sgy with only say 3-500 mil of debt.
Probably never happen because of ESG, the oil companies will be buying other oil companies to take advantage of the higher oil prices. Drilling for barrels so to speak...
Comment by
Dibah420 on Nov 04, 2021 8:18am
s123ST Simply put oil is NOT going to $200 any time soon.
Comment by
littledave55555 on Nov 04, 2021 8:18am
They just released 11 million shares plus I'm guessing people want money not shares an that who's dumping them good for me .. I like to get some more before they are gone an this goes up GO SGY GO !!! LOL BUT NOT TILL MONDAY LOL!!! GLTA
Comment by
TickerStock101 on Nov 04, 2021 10:47am
There are better names to be in right now, like Athabasca oil. Surge will do okay but won't move until after 1st quarter results in 2022. IMO
Comment by
ol_griz on Nov 04, 2021 11:29am
You've got it. Past sins are rarely atoned for quickly unless luck plays a part. The recent acquisitions were fine accretive targets but necessarily delay the desired outcome. Hard to be so patient when others "surge" by us, but there it is. Maybe even Q2 before we breathe easy.
Comment by
sunshine7 on Nov 04, 2021 8:24am
Don't shake it too hard as you may need it to cover your short. Hedges were nessary (and likely demanded by the bank when oil was recently not profitable. Hedges are coming off as we speak and your dream will come true. Other oilies behaving the same. But you know all this. Oil is up this am so I assume the cartel did not cave in. Probably the biggest factor on where this is heading today.
Comment by
geezer21 on Nov 04, 2021 8:41am
SGY has the highest rate of return of 178% on equity of all the oil producers. Foolish to want dividends that are only paying 1 to 3% when you can paydown debt and recover 6 to 9% interest being paid on loans and have that go to bottom line shareholder equity. If you want safe 1 to 3 % return go buy a GIC.
Comment by
Baystboy07 on Nov 04, 2021 9:34am
But the reality is they did not pay down debt significantly...only $3 million last quarter...also management has no accountability to shareholders...no earnings call is not appropriate....corporate governance is horrible....best thing that could happen here is they are merged into a peer and management is all fired.
Comment by
ppp on Nov 04, 2021 9:57am
Net debt went up. from 292 mil to 319 mil.
Comment by
sclarda on Nov 04, 2021 11:37am
ppp wrote Net debt went up. from 292 mil to 319 mil. ------------------------------------------------------------- Debt went up by aprox. $17 million in the last month or two with the asset purchases they just closed but the two acquisitions also added aprox. 5600 barrels per day of production. Funny how you forgot to mention that part.
Comment by
ppp on Nov 04, 2021 11:54am
It also went up because capex was more than CF and thats not including acquisitions. I forgot to mention that part also.
Comment by
ppp on Nov 04, 2021 11:08pm
I guess I don't like it when mangement says one thing and does another. If you don't like what I post hit the ignore, its that simple. I will continue to post what ever I feel like. If these guys turn this around next quarter and have FCF, I will be the first to congratulate them. Till then its a sh%t show in my book. Prove to me these guys have a handle on things and I will shut up..
Comment by
ppp on Nov 04, 2021 11:38pm
However IMO q4 is the turnaround, CF will increase because of 4000 more bbls of production Not Hedged. higher oil prices,less capex. I say CF will be 12 to 15 mil higher. So I am going to add a few shares here and there till the spring. GLTA not much more to say.
Comment by
fortunefavorsus on Nov 05, 2021 8:21am
I thought everybody already knew that this is a 4th quarter turnaround and great performance in 2022. Being held down to let sellers from acquisitions out and short term drop in oil spooked some investors from adding to positions. Nothing shows yet that oil want continue its climb to $100 in 2022.
Comment by
unc12345 on Nov 05, 2021 8:10am
Question: are you soundandfury?