Post by
downtozero on Jan 17, 2022 6:14pm
Walking back the numbers
Any ideas what has caused the reductions in planned performance? Why does SGY constantly promise better performance in the future, then walks it back to poorer performance when the dates arrive. Even the lower numbers are good, just not as good as earlier promises. Forcasts for 2022 @$75 WTI
Aug 2021: CAPEX=110M, FCF=140M, debt to funds flow 0.6x
Nov 2021: CAPEX=120M, FCF=135M, debt to funds flow 0.6x
Jan 2022: CAPEX=124M, FCF=131M, debt to funds flow 0.75x
CAPEX went up 14M, FCF went down 9M and debt to funds flow worsened by 0.15x. All to meet the same boepd. I can only guess 2021 had higher decline rate than expected and higher debt servicing costs.
Comment by
Tanman1914 on Jan 17, 2022 6:52pm
Probably rising because of Inflation. Prices of labor are more expensive and cost of material. If ya don't believe me, go take a look at the prices at the grocery store since October of last year :)
Comment by
ppp on Jan 17, 2022 8:45pm
It all depends on if they can sqeeze a little more production out of the the extra capex. They have some fast paying wells. So time will tell, but I will be watching like a hawk.