Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. T.SOIL

My 2 Cents

[ROIcrusader]

New here, but have done some research and would like to put together some highlights. Would appreciate some other perspectives. Appears there was a transformational financing and transaction just a few weeks ago. Lots to unpack.

Midpoint production 8,000 boe/pd 2022

Hedged approx 2500 boe/d until approx June 2022. 

Recent financing and private placements allowed the retirement of debt. 

32m shares outstanding, with warrants for another 27m priced at 3.20 and 4.00. So there is some overhang there. However, these warrants will provide the company with 90m so I'd expect that to be used to fund acquisitions etc.

Corporate presentation projects 2022 WTI crude oil price of USD $75.00 /bbl; MSW differential of USD – $4.00 /bbl; CAD/USD exchange rate of $0.80; AECO price of $3.50/GJ; corporate differential of CAD -$6.40 /bbl; hedging expense of -$10.82 /boe; and general and administrative expenses of $2.06 /boe, see advisory Non-Gaap Measures.

Using the above they estimate being debt free by Q2 2023.

Sensitivity over $75 WTI: 

Assumption Change AFF Effect ($millions)
WTI oil price (USD/ bbl) $5.00 4.1m (6.7%)
AECO C gas price $0.10 0.1 (0.0%)
CAD/USD exchange rate $0.01 1.4 (2.3%)
Oil production (bbl/d) 100 1.3 (2.0%)
Gas production (Mcf/d) 1,000 0.2 (0.0%)

2022 Est @ WTI 75

2022 Forecast Low High Average production1 7,800 boe/d 8,200 boe/d ($millions)
EBITDA prior to hedging 107.6 111.6 EBITDA2 73.0 77.0
Cash Interest (12.0) (12.0)
Adjusted Funds Flow (AFF) 61.0 - 65.0m
AFF per Basic Share3 1.91-2.03/shr
Capital Expenditures (Excluding Acquisition) (42.6) (42.6)
Free Funds Flow 18.4-22.4m
2022 Year End Net Debt 41.4-37.4
Net Debt to EBITDA 0.6x 0.5x 2022e
EV / EBITDA4 1.9x 1.7x

Adjusted for $100 WTI +24m AFF

Adjusted for $110 WTI +32m AFF

[Insidersinsider]

Your 2 cents is not even worth 1 cent...your math is WAY OFF on Saturn's hedge.

[ROIcrusader]

I hang my head in shame... more like 5800? (or 5200) until 2026. yikes, my bad.